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Top stories

McDonald’s Japan Drops One Piece Happy Meal After Pokémon Card Frenzy

McDonald’s Japan Drops One Piece Happy Meal After Pokémon Card Frenzy

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for TSE

How many deputies will Partido Missão elect to Brazil's Chamber of Deputies in the 2026 general election?

Nov 24, 6:11 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

91425

OptionProbability

13+ deputies

5-8 deputies

9-12 deputies

0-4 deputies

74

11

9

6

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Nov 15, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21028

OptionProbability

Tasaneeya Viratyosin (Wharton)

Chi (Clara) Xu (Wharton)

Guanyu Zhou (Wharton)

Ching-Tse Chen (Chicago)

Bianca He (Chicago)

Jessica Li (Chicago)

Meichen Qian (Chicago)

Filippo Cavaleri (Chicago)

Joanna Harris Murphy (Chicago)

Patrick Adams (MIT)

Christian Kontz (Stanford)

Pauline Liang (Stanford)

Oliver Xie (Stanford)

Edoardo Marchesi (Chicago)

26

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

24

Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?

Oct 28, 6:58 PMOct 4, 6:56 PM

11.97%chance

11676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected Governor of São Paulo (SP)?

Jan 5, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11554

OptionProbability

Tarcísio de Freitas

Fernando Haddad

Ricardo Nunes

Erika Hilton

Márcio França

78

7

5

3

1

Brazil 2026 Election: Will Lula get more votes than in 2022 (59,563,912) in any round?

Dec 18, 9:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

12393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Jan 13, 9:08 PMOct 4, 11:59 PM

3387

OptionProbability

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Flávio Bolsonaro

Fernando Haddad

Tarcício de Freitas

90

87

6

1

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Minas Gerais (MG)?

May 12, 5:42 PMOct 4, 11:59 PM

4379

OptionProbability

Cleitinho Azevedo

Alexandre Kalil

Mateus Simões

Gabriel Azevedo

Rodrigo Pacheco

62

20

17

5

3

Will Paulo Kogos be elected state deputy of São Paulo? / Paulo Kogos será eleito deputado estadual de São Paulo?

Apr 24, 11:06 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

37%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Rio Grande do Sul (RS)?

Jul 21, 2:31 PMOct 25, 11:59 PM

3142

OptionProbability

Luciano Zucco

Juliana Brizola

Gabriel Souza

None of the above

42

42

14

5

Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?

Feb 2, 7:33 PMOct 4, 11:59 PM

369

OptionProbability

Datafolha

Ipec

Quaest

Atlas Intel

Ipespe

Paraná Pesquisas

PoderData

35

35

35

35

35

35

28

Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?

May 27, 3:14 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

69%chance

366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will the Goa Tse statue of Jose Luis Ricon be SO magnificent it becomes a work of art?

Aug 16, 3:43 AM

20

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