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Top stories

Elon Musk’s X Settles $500 Million Lawsuit Over 2022 Twitter Layoffs Affecting 6,000 Ex-Employees; Kimberly-Clark and Delta Also Reach Multi-Million Settlements

Elon Musk’s X Settles $500 Million Lawsuit Over 2022 Twitter Layoffs Affecting 6,000 Ex-Employees; Kimberly-Clark and Delta Also Reach Multi-Million Settlements

Authors

10

1 year ago

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Backs Merge Labs to Challenge Elon Musk’s Neuralink, Twitter and Tesla

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Backs Merge Labs to Challenge Elon Musk’s Neuralink, Twitter and Tesla

Authors

11

1 year ago

Musk Moves to Dismiss SEC Suit Over Twitter Stake Disclosure

Musk Moves to Dismiss SEC Suit Over Twitter Stake Disclosure

Authors

15

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Twitter

When will Twitter actually "collapse"?

Jul 1, 9:17 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18734375

OptionProbability

Not before 2027

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q4 2024

2025

2026

Q3 2024

94

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.86%chance

22425227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3142

1870

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

618678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

1484

Will Manifold be acquired by Twitter by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.4%chance

557621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2346

1313

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.59%chance

736967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

915

Will Twitter be valued at >100B?

Nov 5, 4:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.77%chance

301918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1754

729

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Conditional on the Tik-tok bill being passed, will the US government force a change in Twitter's ownership by 2030?

Mar 13, 5:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

191491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

838

Will Elon Musk take Twitter public (IPO) anytime in the future?

Oct 31, 5:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

181119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

897

Will Twitter join the S&P 500?

Dec 31, 9:20 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.34%chance

14515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

901

Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030

Apr 11, 3:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.44%chance

12280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

977

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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