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Underground News

    Prediction markets for Underground

    OptionProbability

    Gene Editing Therapies

    Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

    Human-level AGI

    Regenerative Medicine

    Brain-Computer Interfaces

    Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

    Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

    Bioprinting

    Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

    Solar panels with 40% efficiency

    Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

    Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

    Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

    Space-Based Manufacturing

    Quantum Computing Applications

    Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

    Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

    Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

    Seafloor Mining Robots

    A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

    Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

    Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

    Joywire

    Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

    Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

    Britain finishes HS2

    Lunar Bases

    Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

    Commercial fusion power

    City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

    Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

    Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

    Nuclear Thermal Rockets

    Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

    Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

    Fusion Drives

    Changing the height of an adult at will

    Direct Cognitive Collaboration

    Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

    Commercial asteroid mining

    Orbital Habitats

    Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

    Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

    Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

    Mars Base

    Changing a person's race at will

    Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

    Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

    Space-to-Earth power stations

    Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

    Human sex change at chromosome level

    Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

    Human Mind Uploading

    Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

    Vacuum Airships

    Time travel to the future

    Cryonics with Successful Revival

    Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

    Antimatter bombs

    Commercial cold fusion

    Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

    1% Dyson sphere coverage

    Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

    Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

    Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

    Space Elevator

    Faster then Light Propulsion

    Time travel to the past

    96

    94

    90

    89

    89

    87

    87

    84

    83

    82

    82

    79

    78

    76

    74

    74

    69

    69

    69

    67

    66

    62

    57

    55

    52

    52

    47

    47

    44

    41

    41

    40

    39

    38

    37

    33

    33

    32

    28

    27

    26

    25

    22

    21

    20

    19

    18

    17

    16

    16

    15

    14

    12

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    5

    2

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1110

    950

    Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

    Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    45.85%chance
    828078

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1680

    718

    Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?

    Jan 1, 3:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
    54.66%chance
    576036

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1076

    857

    Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

    Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
    46.16%chance
    405627

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1188

    679

    Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

    Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    72.14%chance
    643258

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1645

    1090

    How many people worldwide will be living primarily underground in 2040?

    Aug 1, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    64.93%chance
    241620

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    1018

    943

    Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?

    Dec 30, 3:27 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
    73.7%chance
    261327

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1071

    605

    OptionProbability

    Alternative 5 (automated heavy rail under the Santa Monica mountains, underground in the Valley)

    Alternative 4 (automated heavy rail under the Santa Monica mountains, aerial in the Valley)

    Alternative 6 (driver-operated heavy rail under the Santa Monica mountains, underground in the Valley)

    Alternative 1 (aerial monorail along 405)

    Alternative 3 (aerial monorail along 405 with partial tunneling)

    No build

    29

    28

    15

    11

    11

    6

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    291

    290

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1032

    953

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