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upGrad News

    Prediction markets for upGrad

    What will happen during Trump's second term?

    Nov 8, 3:31 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
    15330284

    OptionProbability

    RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

    Flag desecration prohibition passed

    Any vaccines banned for any group of people

    J6er pardoned

    Sports team invited to the white house

    A member of Congress is censured or expelled

    The democrats take control of the house of representatives

    Significant Rogue AI Incident

    Blue wave in 2026 midterm elections

    Democrats win Iowa governorship

    Republicans lose the house majority in midterms

    James Talarico wins Texas senate election

    Rob Sand wins 2026 Iowa governor election

    Katie Hobbs win 2026 Arizona governor election

    @DudleyDOODOO creates over 80 options for this market

    Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

    Democrats win the early voting race game and win the midterms

    Democracy survives

    Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently

    Mass Deportations

    Trump is impeached

    A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

    Democrats win back the white house in 2028

    Giorgia Meloni wins reelection prime minister

    Left-wing CPAC alternative launches

    RFK Jr impeached

    Suffer a fall in public

    Nicolas Maduro prosecuted and imprisoned for life

    Chuck Grassley dies

    Peter Hotez goes to prison

    Convergence Magazine (Organizing Upgrade) shut down and cease to exist

    @dudleyDOODO creates over 50 options that are either illogical, incomprehensible or too vague to resolve

    Another project 2025 launched by Heritage Foundation for GOP 2029 presidency

    All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist

    Drone strike in Mexico by US

    Nuclear weapon detonation

    AGI achieved

    US punitive expedition in Mexico

    Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

    A second pope is elected

    Republicans win the white house in 2028

    Deep funding cuts to NIH, NSF, FDA, CDC, HHS, EPA fully implemented and becomes law

    Democrats win trifecta in 2026 midterms

    100k humanoid robots manufactured

    All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all AI technologies and generative ai to defunct and cease to exist

    Reiner Fuellmich released from prison

    350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

    Another covid-like pandemic

    NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS, NSF abolished permanently

    Bell tower added at the US Capitol

    Pauline Hanson becomes Australia prime minister

    Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 occurs and becomes reality

    Science and public health infrastructures dies

    All COVID-19 vaccines pulled off market entirely

    Abolish vaccine funding entirely permanently

    Zach Lahn wins Iowa 2026 governor election

    Alice Weidel becomes German chancellor

    Climate change infrastructures abolished permanently

    MAGA and Trump challenge 2026 midterm GOP losses

    A human walks on the Moon

    Joe Exotic is released from prison

    Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics becomes reality and occurs

    Patriots for Europe controls European parliament and wins majority

    It ends with JD Vance becoming president

    Antifa dissolves

    Post-WW2 international orders die and abolished

    AfD controls chancellorship and AfD becomes chancellor

    Mark Carney wins 2029 Canada election

    Vaccine research and projects permanently abolished

    NASA abolished

    US captures Daniel Ortega and all other leftist leaders worldwide

    Europe of Sovereign Nations controls European parliament and wins majority

    Measles vaccines abolished and pulled off market

    Adam Schiff goes to prison

    Chris Whitty goes to prison

    European countries all under far-right regime control

    Steve Bannon runs for 2028 president

    Probabilistic forecasting dies, extinct, defunct, and cease to exist

    Fauci and other scientist experts go to prison

    Actblue shut down and cease to exist

    All prediction markets defunct and cease to exist permanently

    World war 3 and global war launch

    Metaculus shut down and cease to exist

    Room temperature superconductor discovered

    Elon Musk is arrested for treason

    China invades Taiwan

    US military intervention on Canadian territory

    Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Perplexity defunct and cease to exist

    Latin American countries all under far-right regime control

    Ilhan Omar deported

    Soros family goes to prison

    Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

    Coup attempt in the United States

    All in person comic con events get cancelled throughout 2020s

    Republicans leads in early and mail in voting in midterms

    Roberto Vannacci becomes Italy prime minister

    Hillary Clinton goes to prison

    All international NGOs defunct and cease to exist

    Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory overturned and tilted to Bolsonaro

    Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

    Republicans win control of the house

    All type of vaccines abolished and pulled off market

    Fauci goes to prison

    Manifold market shut down and cease to exist

    US withdraws from United Nations

    Viktor Orban returns as prime minister

    GOP, Trump, and MAGA controls all election infrastructures away from state governments

    Russia invades all European countries

    Barack Obama goes to prison

    Nigel Farage becomes UK prime minister

    Abolish global health funding and infrastructures

    Abolish global vaccine funding and vaccine infrastructures permanently

    Mass imprisonment of scientists, public health officials, pandemic officials and others worldwide

    Far-right seizes all American universities nationwide

    Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts generative AI and all AI technology

    Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts all prediction markets

    Anti-AI movement abolishes and defuncts all AI technologies and infrastructures

    The Senate eliminates the filibuster

    Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

    Democracy dies

    All left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down

    World Health Organization dissolved and abolished

    Far-right seizes all American institutions

    All US citizens arrested, detained, and targeted by ICE

    Nuclear war

    Reform UK wins UK 2029 election

    World becomes global far-right regime

    Russia invades all NATO countries

    Bill Gates goes to prison

    All media under right-wing control

    North Korea bombs and invades South Korea

    Elon Musk buys the 2026 midterm elections

    US captures Lula and removes him from office

    Supreme Court packing

    22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

    Donald Trump reelected President

    United States and the world becomes totalitarian dictatorship

    All federal and state judges impeached

    All Democrats imprisoned

    Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China bombs US mainland

    Rupert Lowe becomes UK prime minister

    Human extinction

    US buys Greenland and becomes 52nd state

    Democrats permanently locked out of power

    Democrats lose the house in 2026 midterm election

    All scientists, doctors, pandemic experts, and all other public health officials go to prison

    Eagles three-peat

    2026 midterm election gets stolen by Trump and GOP and tilted in ruling party's favor

    Abolish elections permanently

    Russia invades all continents and controls the world globally

    All Trump opponents go to prison

    Canada becomes 51st state

    Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran invades US mainland

    Republicans win the early voting race game and win the midterms

    Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms

    Abortion permanently banned nationwide and worldwide

    End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days

    Red wave in 2026 midterm elections

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    Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)

    Feb 6, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    13.66%chance
    231091

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1738

    807

    How will Ussop Upgrade?

    Mar 3, 2:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    251006

    OptionProbability

    Devil Fruit (On him or his weapon)

    New Weapon

    Conqueror's Haki

    Advanced Observation Haki/Future Sight

    Better Pop Greens

    85

    76

    53

    49

    22

    Will enhanced prosthetics be developed that lead to people voluntarily 'upgrading' their natural limbs by EOY 2040?🦾🦿

    Jan 16, 11:59 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    36.34%chance
    25641

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    997

    986

    Will the Cybertruck or an upgraded version still be sold new by Tesla at the end of 2027?

    May 11, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    10.95%chance
    8515

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    285

    35

    Will enhanced prosthetics be developed that lead to people voluntarily 'upgrading' their natural limbs by EOY 2050?🦾🦿

    Jan 22, 6:59 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    68.01%chance
    18451

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1153

    909

    When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test

    Feb 25, 4:11 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
    2294

    OptionProbability

    >=2030

    2027

    2028

    2029

    2026

    30

    23

    21

    16

    9

    Will a hardware 3 tesla vehicle get an official hardware FSD upgrade by the end of 2026?

    Feb 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    12.19%chance
    5195

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    282

    39

    Will a Rally2 upgrade kit car finish on the podium in 3 out of the first 5 rounds of WRC 2027?

    Oct 15, 9:15 PMMay 9, 11:59 PM
    37.17%chance
    234

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    130

    77

    Will Convergence Magazine (Organizing Upgrade) shut down and cease to exist before 2040?

    Oct 25, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM
    22.71%chance
    532

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    110

    51

    Will bits in bio slack (bitsinbio.slack.com) finally upgrade so people can have access to more than 90 days, by EOY2027?

    Apr 27, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    56.32%chance
    114

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    114

    88

    Will the Damage by Space Objects "treaty" get upgraded or replaced at least partly by some nations before 2032?

    Jan 30, 9:46 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
    48.73%chance
    15

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    110

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