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Top stories

U.S. F-22 Jets Escort Putin’s Plane After Alaska Summit With Trump

US Foreign Policy

U.S. F-22 Jets Escort Putin’s Plane After Alaska Summit With Trump

Authors

11

7 months ago

Prediction markets for US Air Force

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

44.05%chance

589686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Will the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) sustain battle damage caused directly by Iranian military forces before 31 march

Feb 28, 8:03 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

13.36%chance

524918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

39

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

274056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

Will the Minab school strike be attributed to an Iranian missile by June 2026?

Mar 1, 12:15 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

7.49%chance

192278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2535

1094

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

Sep 14, 12:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.11%chance

27908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

900

US Air Force stock

Apr 13, 9:28 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

16611

OptionProbability

YES

NO

272

255

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

6191

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

83

76

76

76

76

76

64

56

25

Will the US Navy's NGAD fighter enter service before the US Air Force's?

Apr 6, 8:01 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

46.98%chance

2142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

70

69

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

In what year will the A-10 Warthog be retired from service from the US Air Force?

Sep 25, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

332

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

2031 or later

Before 2027

50

50

50

50

50

34

Latest stories

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Aug 16, 2025
Aug 16, 2025
Russia
US Foreign Policy
Politics
U.S. F-22 Jets Escort Putin’s Plane After Alaska Summit With Trump
Authors
11
7 months ago

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