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US Department of State News

    Prediction markets for US Department of State

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    12408

    8996

    Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

    Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
    43%chance
    8712384

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1151

    869

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    6884

    207

    Will wokeness peak in the United States in the 2020s?

    Mar 12, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    92%chance
    303366

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    3162

    539

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1914

    522

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1126

    808

    OptionProbability

    Apple gets subjected to financial penalties

    Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.

    IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities

    The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.

    The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.

    The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.

    Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.

    Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).

    Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading

    The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

    The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.

    If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)

    The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices

    The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.

    The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.

    The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.

    The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.

    Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.

    The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.

    Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.

    80

    66

    66

    66

    65

    62

    55

    55

    55

    52

    48

    48

    47

    47

    43

    40

    36

    36

    33

    32

    Will the US halve its emissions by 2030?

    Sep 11, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    24.78%chance
    15639

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1158

    933

    Will the US recognize another genocide before 2029?

    Jul 2, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
    66.36%chance
    14525

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1050

    959

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1125

    889

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