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Prediction markets for US Department of State
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
23.41%chance
8720078
OptionVotes
12408
8996
Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
43%chance
8712384
OptionVotes
1151
869
Will the United States Remain Actively Committed to the Paris Agreement by the End of 2025?
Dec 27, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
2.39%chance
216169
OptionVotes
6884
207
Will wokeness peak in the United States in the 2020s?
Mar 12, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
92%chance
303366
OptionVotes
3162
539
Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
23.73%chance
343206
OptionVotes
1793
558
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
21.44%chance
131668
OptionVotes
1914
522
Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?
Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.42%chance
291126
OptionVotes
1126
808
OptionProbability
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
OptionVotes
1158
933
OptionVotes
1050
959
US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031
Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
44.14%chance
2125
OptionVotes
1125
889
will the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??
Apr 15, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.27%chance
480
OptionVotes
140
71
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