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Prediction markets for USGS
Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?
Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.01%chance
1317381
OptionVotes
13630
7337
If the Gulf of Mexico is renamed to the Gulf of America, will it be because…
Jan 8, 6:30 AMJan 20, 7:59 AM
265145
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
65
59
21
19
17
9
8
3
1
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026?
Mar 2, 6:10 PMSep 29, 6:08 PM
60.98%chance
22750
OptionVotes
1250
800
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on August 29, 2026?
Mar 2, 6:08 PMAug 29, 6:08 PM
60.98%chance
22750
OptionVotes
1250
800
Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?
Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM
53.33%chance
51740
OptionVotes
10690
9355
Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 60 kt on May 31, 2026?
Mar 2, 9:07 PMMay 31, 9:06 PM
14.3%chance
11450
OptionVotes
2450
334
Will the US sovereign wealth fund invest in Blackstone or TPG by 2028?
Feb 3, 11:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
38.46%chance
5482
OptionVotes
1265
790
Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?
Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM
45.27%chance
6255
OptionVotes
1100
909
World blast-furnace iron slag output ≥355M tonnes by end-2026?
Nov 26, 5:15 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
58.92%chance
4200
OptionVotes
1198
835
Elon Musk drafted to work on a project for USGov any time through 2031
Sep 18, 6:17 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
12.39%chance
6198
OptionVotes
311
102
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.51%chance
4140
OptionVotes
1140
877
Will "Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 3, 8:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
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