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Top stories

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Prediction markets for Variety

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.67%chance

556467615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2818

2386

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

2.85%chance

311232411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5786

714

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

14.33%chance

310156274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1763

877

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

38.6%chance

308127429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

1063

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.07%chance

26397016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

958

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74%chance

19325740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1761

447

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

199507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7378

2976

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

77.43%chance

51540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3308

1022

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will "Varieties Of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.42%chance

4372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

971

Which of the following is your favorite of an assorted candy variety pack?

May 28, 5:22 PM

30

Which cabbage variety do you prefer: green or red cabbage?

Oct 1, 4:00 AM

70

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