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Top stories

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Prediction markets for Variety

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2969

2196

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.7%chance

304226846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3805

789

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

13.07%chance

296153064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1910

854

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

33.2%chance

297114829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

1199

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.14%chance

24393000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

944

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

29832861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3248

2113

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66%chance

19025217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

558

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will "Varieties Of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.42%chance

4372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

971

Which of the following is your favorite of an assorted candy variety pack?

May 28, 5:22 PM

30

Which cabbage variety do you prefer: green or red cabbage?

Oct 1, 4:00 AM

60

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