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Vector News

    Prediction markets for Vector

    OptionProbability

    The Jews control at least one nation's government

    Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

    The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

    Imane Khelif is intersex

    Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

    Dream faked the Manhunt videos

    DHMO in the water supply

    Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

    The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

    That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

    Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

    √-1 isn't real

    Smartphones listen in on private conversations

    US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

    Santa is rigged

    The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

    Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

    Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

    ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.

    Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

    Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

    Annie Altman's abuse claims

    The NBA rigs the draft lottery

    That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

    Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.

    The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

    Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

    Gamergate was right

    Dead Internet theory

    Groundhog Day is rigged

    Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

    The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

    Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

    Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

    John McAfee didn't kill himself

    An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

    @strutheo is @notrickspringfield

    There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

    The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

    Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

    At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

    The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

    Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

    This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

    Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

    The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

    Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

    China made covid 19 in a lab

    Rory Stewart worked for MI6

    At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

    The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

    Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

    Eating your veggies is bad for your health

    Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

    FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

    The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.

    The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

    The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

    Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

    The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

    Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

    The Clintons assasinated their rivals

    China was not genociding Uyghurs

    A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

    Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

    My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

    lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

    Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

    Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

    Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

    The CIA killed JFK

    Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

    Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

    ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.

    Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

    Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

    The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

    Sue Gray was a spy

    Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

    We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.

    A cure for cancer has already been found

    covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

    The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

    As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

    The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.

    Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

    The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

    The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

    The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

    Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

    Bush did 9/11

    "Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

    Israel killed JFK

    The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

    Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

    US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

    Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

    Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

    Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

    Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA

    Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

    The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

    Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

    The NFL is rigged

    South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

    Harold Holt murdered

    COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

    Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

    Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

    Ogopogo is real

    QAnon

    Princess Diana was assassinated

    A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

    Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.

    Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

    Human didnt evolve from apes

    Exercise is bad for your health

    Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

    Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

    Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

    carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

    Allen Iverson invented A.I.

    The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

    QR codes are satanic

    Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

    Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

    Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

    China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

    Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

    Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

    Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

    Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

    Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

    Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

    Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

    South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

    Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

    xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

    @HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

    Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Rationalussy isn't real.

    Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

    Tupac is still alive in 2024

    Bielefeld does not exist

    The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

    Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

    The Mandella Effect in general is real

    The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

    The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

    US government is harboring aliens

    Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

    Birds aren't real

    climate change isn't human caused

    Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

    Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

    Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

    The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

    Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

    Climate change isn’t real

    The moon landing was fake

    The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

    You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

    The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

    The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.

    The illuminati runs the world

    *All* health care is net negative for health

    Michelle Obama is a man

    Brazilian money is not real

    The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

    The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

    Yeti is real or similar creature

    Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

    The earth is a dodecahedron

    Skibidi Toilet is real

    Q is Putin

    It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

    Africa isn't real

    Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

    There is no female orgasm

    The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

    The earth is flat

    *All* vaccines are net negative for health

    End of the world in 2012

    Earth is hollow

    Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

    Finland isn't real

    Australia isn't real.

    5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

    Nuclear weapons have never existed

    Flossing is bad for your health

    Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

    HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

    Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

    The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

    Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001

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    Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

    Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    14.85%chance
    292414

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    239

    42

    OptionProbability

    Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

    Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

    Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

    Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

    None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

    Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

    Provided with a detailed strategy, execute a cyberattack against a hardened target.

    23

    19

    17

    15

    15

    7

    4

    What will be the final net IRR for Vector Capital VI? (X100)

    Dec 2, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    66.25%chance
    42024

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    415

    236

    OptionProbability

    Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.

    Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)

    Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.

    Other

    A bluff.

    Something to prevent her from committing suicide

    Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.

    Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.

    Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves

    Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.

    Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.

    Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)

    Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.

    The answer will never be officially revealed.

    Something to help her learn rationality

    77

    19

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?

    Dec 30, 11:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    221641

    OptionProbability

    Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuchang campus

    Wuhan Institute of Virology, Jiangxia campus

    Wuhan CDC

    UNC

    Fort Detrick

    Wuhan Institute of Biological Products

    Wuhan University

    Other

    VECTOR lab in Russia

    Canadian National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, Manitoba

    Huazhong Agricultural University in Wuhan

    30

    15

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    4

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    2

    2

    2

    How Will the LLM Hallucination Problem Be Solved?

    Mar 31, 8:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    32977

    OptionProbability

    It won't be

    Giving all LLMs access to the internet and databases of scientific papers

    Other

    Bigger model trained on more data + RL

    Vector Embeddings (as with Pinecone https://www.pinecone.io/)

    Filtering (as with Deepmind AlphaCode https://www.deepmind.com/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode)

    Feed Forward Algorithms (https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf)

    Vigger models + prompt engineering

    Ensemble Combined with Fine Tuning

    Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.08243.pdf)

    48

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    OptionProbability

    Knuckles the Echidna

    Miles “Tails” Prower

    Metal Sonic

    Sonic the Hedgehog - voiced by Ben Schwartz

    Dr. Robotnik - Jim Carrey portrays some Eggman / clone / impersonator

    Tom “Donut Lord” Wachowski

    Maddie “Pretzel Lady” Wachowski

    Agent Stone

    Dr. Robotnik - confirmed to be Eggman and not a clone / impersonator

    Ozzy the Golden Retriever

    Iblis

    Sonic the Hedgehog - Super Form

    Wade Whipple

    Big the Cat

    Gerald Robotnik

    Rouge the Bat

    Amy Rose

    Cream the Rabbit

    Metal Sonic - specifically Neo Metal or Metal Overlord Form

    Silver the Hedgehog

    Longclaw the Owl

    Jack Sinclair

    Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be the original Shadow

    ‘Ugly Sonic’ - a character whose appearance clearly alludes to the pre-backlash 2020 design

    Blaze the Cat

    Chaos

    Chief Pachacamac

    Tikal the Echidna

    Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be a clone or impersonator

    Sonic the Hedgehog - two Sonics (not impersonators) interact with each other as a result of time / space shenanigans

    Vector the Crocodile

    Espio the Chameleon

    Charmy Bee

    Eggman Nega

    Mephiles the Dark

    Zavok ❤️

    Infinite the Jackal

    Mighty the Armadillo

    Sonic the Hedgehog - Werehog Form

    Princess Elise

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    OptionProbability

    Pretraining data composition

    Doesn't use any scale.ai training data

    Offline policy learning RLHf

    Task vectors like golden gate Claude

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    OptionProbability

    Other

    Gpt-4 passes the bar exam

    Autoregressive Image Generation without Vector Quantization

    Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3

    HuggingGPT: Solving ai tasks with chatgpt and its friends in hugging face

    Lima: Less is more for alignment

    35

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