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Veterans Affairs News

    Prediction markets for Veterans Affairs

    OptionProbability

    call someone retarded through text or speech

    Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

    A literal red line on the ground/floor

    complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

    Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

    repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

    request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

    explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

    complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Stays alive

    Causes Tina Peters' early release

    pass 500 or more executive orders

    intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

    new blockade of a country

    Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

    refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

    have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

    forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

    declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

    request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

    Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

    complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    put his name on a ship in the navy

    request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

    Says 6 7 (or variant)

    sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

    File lawsuit against a congressperson

    resume buying oil from Russia

    Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

    Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

    Dep

    call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

    have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

    Revoke ten or more citizenships

    Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

    sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

    ten or more protestors killed during term

    Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

    Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

    Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

    Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

    postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state

    Raise the retirement age for social security

    closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

    order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

    Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

    Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

    Nominate a family member to high office

    Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

    have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

    Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

    Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

    get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

    Call for the end of the Senate

    Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

    Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

    Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

    add a new federal holiday in his honor

    have a journalist arrested

    Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

    Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

    call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

    remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

    Pardon a convicted pedophile

    Pardon himself

    repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

    End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

    host putin at mar a lago

    Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

    Salute Putin

    Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

    Raise contribution limits (FEC)

    federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

    force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

    complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

    Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

    issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

    department of defense renamed to Dept of war

    Get rid of Noaa.

    Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

    force a former president to testify before Congress

    Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

    Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

    Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

    stops all sanctions on Russia

    enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

    Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

    Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

    Withdraw from NATO

    Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

    Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

    revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

    Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    Implement a federal age of consent

    Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

    Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

    Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

    Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

    Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

    All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

    Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

    repeal Obamacare

    pardon derek chauvin

    classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

    admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

    Add a citizenship question to the census

    confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

    confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

    debank a congressperson governor or mayor

    Enact price controls on groceries

    Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

    announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

    expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

    Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

    Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

    Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

    actually disinter bodies from another country

    Call for the end of child marriage

    Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

    Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

    change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

    orders arrests of any Biden family member

    delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

    federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

    Prosecute someone for flag burning

    His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

    Announce he’s running for a third term

    Pardon ghislaine maxwell

    cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

    Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

    all time high unemployment reached

    Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

    Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

    Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

    Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

    Replace his Vice President

    Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

    Causes derek chauvin's early release

    declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

    Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

    cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

    Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

    Attack a NATO ally.

    Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

    expand the borders of the usa

    remove tax exempt from only certain religions

    have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

    threaten to disinter bodies from another country

    Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

    fauci in jail at least one week

    take control of a part of ukraine

    add a new state

    pardon george santos

    take state ownership in an airline

    Postpone the elections due to emergency

    Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

    ban trans people from holding federal offices

    changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

    Annex any part of Mexico

    ends black history month

    Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

    Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

    take control of a part of greenland

    ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

    New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

    Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

    Call for the end of gay marriage

    Fully or partially privatize Social Security

    Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

    Pardon p diddy

    Implement a federal abortion ban

    make statements that are negative about labubu

    Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

    Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

    Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

    breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

    Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

    fully nationalize an airline

    stop California from hosting the Olympics

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

    Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

    change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

    change the borders of a state

    breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

    repeal an amendment

    declares a white history month

    Call for the end of the House of Reps

    give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

    enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

    After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

    Call for the end of interracial marriage

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    bans anime

    Wearing a white dress after labor day

    Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

    bans 6 7

    Kidnap the Pope

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    95

    88

    88

    84

    83

    82

    81

    80

    80

    75

    72

    72

    71

    70

    69

    69

    66

    64

    63

    62

    62

    60

    57

    53

    52

    51

    50

    49

    48

    47

    45

    44

    44

    43

    42

    42

    40

    40

    39

    38

    38

    36

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    35

    34

    34

    34

    33

    33

    33

    33

    31

    30

    30

    30

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    29

    29

    28

    28

    28

    28

    27

    27

    27

    27

    27

    27

    26

    26

    26

    26

    26

    25

    25

    25

    24

    24

    24

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    22

    22

    22

    21

    21

    21

    21

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    20

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    14

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    12

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    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Attorney General: Pam Bondi

    Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

    Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

    Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

    Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

    Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

    Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

    Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

    Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

    Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

    Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

    Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

    Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

    United States Trade Representative: James Greer

    Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

    Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

    Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

    Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

    Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

    Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

    Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

    Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

    Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

    President: Donald Trump

    Vice President: JD Vance

    100

    100

    100

    100

    81

    77

    77

    76

    64

    40

    35

    34

    29

    27

    27

    27

    26

    22

    22

    22

    21

    20

    16

    14

    10

    3

    OptionProbability

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

    Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

    Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

    Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

    Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

    Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

    Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

    Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

    Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

    Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

    Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

    John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

    Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

    Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

    Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

    John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

    Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

    Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

    Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

    Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

    Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

    99

    95

    91

    89

    88

    85

    85

    83

    78

    78

    78

    78

    75

    66

    64

    62

    60

    50

    43

    31

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

    John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

    James Comey – Former FBI Director

    James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

    John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

    Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

    Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

    Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

    Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

    Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

    Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

    Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

    Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

    John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

    Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

    Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

    Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

    Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

    Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

    Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

    Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

    Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

    James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

    Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

    Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

    Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

    Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

    Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

    Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

    Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

    Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

    Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

    Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

    Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

    Joe Biden – President of the United States

    Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

    Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

    Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

    Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

    Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

    Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

    Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

    Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

    Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

    Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

    Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

    Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

    Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

    Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

    Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

    Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

    Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

    Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

    Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

    Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

    Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

    Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

    Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

    Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

    100

    100

    100

    79

    76

    68

    68

    66

    66

    66

    58

    57

    56

    56

    51

    49

    48

    47

    46

    41

    41

    41

    41

    40

    40

    40

    40

    40

    40

    40

    37

    37

    36

    35

    35

    34

    33

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    27

    27

    24

    0

    OptionProbability

    Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

    Other

    89

    11

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