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Prediction markets for Vital
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Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.24%chance
287553
OptionVotes
1580
927
Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?
Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.75%chance
191961
OptionVotes
1917
780
Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
42.26%chance
271090
OptionVotes
1267
732
Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?
Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
72.73%chance
15859
OptionVotes
1649
585
Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?
Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM
71.13%chance
15721
OptionVotes
1076
958
OptionProbability
34
28
24
9
3
2
Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?
Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.38%chance
12299
OptionVotes
1162
941
OptionProbability
66
66
66
66
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
48
48
OptionVotes
107
49
OptionProbability
270
270
Will "Vitalik's Response to AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
114
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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