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Vital News

    Prediction markets for Vital

    🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]

    May 22, 7:43 PMSep 7, 4:36 PM
    13716925

    OptionProbability

    Make the bread taste good

    Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

    Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

    Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

    Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

    Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

    Use sourdough instead of yeast

    Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

    Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

    Add 50g honey

    Watch the video

    Autolyse 20 minutes

    3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

    More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

    Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

    Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

    Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

    Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

    Improve the bread

    it needs more salt

    Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

    Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

    Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

    Use 50% whole grain flour

    Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

    Toast the bread

    Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

    Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

    Throw the bread at a telescope

    Add 50g sugar

    Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

    Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

    Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

    Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

    Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

    Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

    Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

    Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

    replace 10% of flour with farina bona

    Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

    Increase water by 50 g

    Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

    Swap 200ml water for milk

    Bake it with your best friend.

    While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

    Add 50g vital wheat gluten

    Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

    Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

    Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

    Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

    Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

    Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

    Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

    Replace salt with sugar

    Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

    Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

    Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

    Add a pinch of sugar

    Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

    Make the bread great again

    Make the bread edible then throw it in

    Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

    Drink vodka while eating the bread

    Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

    Do FOLDED

    Quit Manifold into the bread.

    Kill the bread into Manifold.

    Replace flour with flowers

    Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

    Think positive thoughts before tasting

    Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

    Bake vodka into it

    Wear a suit while baking the cake.

    Use lemonade instead of water.

    Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

    Bake for 5 more minutes

    Add 2g? of baking soda

    Let dough sit 48 hrs

    put butter into it

    Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

    Half yeast

    Add a tablespoon of sugar

    Bake one more minute

    Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

    Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

    Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

    Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

    Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

    Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

    Play classical music while baking

    Bake for 5 fewer minutes

    Quadruple salt

    Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

    Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

    Bake your social security number into it.

    Bake one fewer minute

    Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

    Bake vegimite into it.

    Eat the bread in front of the White House.

    Implement all options that resolved NO

    Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

    Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

    Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

    Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

    Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

    Implementing every element listed below.

    Just make donuts instead

    Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

    Use a plastic baking sheet.

    Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

    Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

    Double oven temperature

    Halve oven temperature

    Light it on fire with birthday candles.

    Bake it with a microwave

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

    Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

    Bake America Great Again

    Sacrifice a lamb

    Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

    Bake in a cat and a dog

    Explode it:

    Take a fat dump in the dough

    Sit in dough 24 hrs

    Let dough sit 24 hrs

    Bake in rectangular tin

    double yeast

    halve salt

    Double salt

    Add 2tsp olive oil

    Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

    Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

    Put fork in microwave

    Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

    Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

    Eat the bread with friends

    Bake it in the country you were born in.

    Eat the bread over the course of a week.

    Bake the bread with love

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    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1580

    927

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1917

    780

    Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

    Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    42.26%chance
    271090

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1267

    732

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1649

    585

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1076

    958

    OptionProbability

    Vitality

    Team Spirit

    The MongolZ

    Other

    MOUZ

    Falcons

    34

    28

    24

    9

    3

    2

    OptionProbability

    I get my car a very weird paint job which would make it unsellable

    Will go to edge Esmeralda (in any capacity, at least one event)

    Will get cavity preventing bacteria

    Japan JET Reunion 2025

    I buy a video camera that can record for 24h+ and record various public places

    Pickleball tournament

    I use computer vision to run diy studies of politeness behavior, grouped by car brand etc

    I start an AI beauty/art twitter and get 1k followers

    I document a method of self modifying an SLR by blackening all surfaces

    Publish and finish personal)group predictions tracking software

    AI phrenology - publish a doc on a study of AI image generation models differential portrayals of previously very hard to measure aspects of the human condition such as facial shape linkages to personality

    Build a personal pickleball court and attract community members to play there

    Surreptitiously construct additional pickleball courts at Foster City

    Publish an edited dashcam video of all the things I've filmed with the Tesla ssd

    Tool to view twitter as someone else. Given that follows are public this should be easy

    Create a nice Tesla models y fold over screen cover with cutouts for vital areas only. Makes night driving much easier. No need for a distracting map view if you're not turning for 200 miles

    I off road hike far into iron point outside Golconda, NV

    I set a personal daily mileage record

    Make balatro mod which shows currently selected hand score if played (ie everyone's need for this otherwise great game)

    Get gphotos to fix any of their innumerable UI bugs by complaining

    Have a sci-fi story published online somewhere

    Make neighborhood intro video with stories etc

    Will go to a natal conference again

    Local Free library and bulletin board at my place

    Overland trek to CITY in Nevada, an off-limits experimental art city which has been in progress for over 50 years

    Go to Mexico to see Trevor Bauer play

    Go see the Starship 4 launch in Texas in 2024

    Release "Reading the mind in the AI generated images"

    Get over 1k users for my browser extension

    Ship something involving image => description => more images to users

    I go to West Africa and go to concerts, visit Nollywood etc

    I write a science fiction novel about aliens who experiment with forced evolution

    Browser extension to add metadata on all people's names, relating to their offspring number, success, etc

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    Team Vitality [LOL stock]

    Mar 17, 3:39 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM
    75%chance
    341

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    107

    49

    Sea level NASA Vital Sign of the Planet in 2073

    Dec 10, 2:34 PMDec 9, 9:00 PM
    8.31%chance
    120

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    270

    270

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1000

    1000

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