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Top stories

Ethereum Breaks $4,880 Record as Whales Shift Bets From Bitcoin

Ethereum Breaks $4,880 Record as Whales Shift Bets From Bitcoin

Authors

13

16 hours ago

Prediction markets for Volatility

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

76.91%chance

6116934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1825

548

Will the "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market trading volume exceed M$10 million before Q4, 2025?

Jan 11, 11:09 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

37.45%chance

71412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

774

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will Bitcoin fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.39%chance

13980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1799

556

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

6.28%chance

16814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

386

26

Will Vix have a median close above 30 in 2033?

Feb 2, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.49%chance

13391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

311

117

Michael's To-Read List

Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9347

OptionProbability

[Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

Advanced Portfolio Management

Option Volatility & Pricing

Njal's Saga

The Bostonians

The History of the Peloponnesian War

Middlemarch

Winds of Winter, lmao

The Histories

Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

Children of Time

Romance of the Three Kingdoms

Catch-22

The Crying of Lot 49

The Storm Before the Storm

88

85

83

83

76

76

76

69

66

64

63

50

50

50

50

Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?

Sep 6, 6:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.02%chance

12311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

167

Google algorithm update causes 50% SERP volatility by November 15, 2025?

Aug 5, 10:00 PMNov 15, 9:59 PM

54.8%chance

2121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

908

Lithium Hydroxide above $8 USD/kg at EOY2025?

Jun 30, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.47%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

How high will the industry average german THG quota payout tonne of CO2 be in 2025?

Jan 2, 10:37 AMFeb 28, 10:59 PM

249

OptionProbability

90€ - <100€

80€ - <90€

100€ - <120€

≥200€

120€ - <140€

60€ - <70€

70€ - <80€

140€ - <160€

<40€

40€ - <50€

50€ - <60€

160€ - <180€

180€ - <200€

15

14

12

10

9

7

7

7

4

4

4

4

4

In May 2028 in Sweden, daily price and supply/demand volatility in electricity will be higher than May 2023

Jun 2, 7:40 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

63.58%chance

528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

173

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Aug 23, 2025
Aug 23, 2025
Markets
DeFi
Hacks
Ethereum Breaks $4,880 Record as Whales Shift Bets From Bitcoin
Authors
13
16 hours ago

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