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Prediction markets for Waves
OptionVotes
1069
918
Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?
Sep 3, 1:24 AMSep 3, 1:20 AM
15.42%chance
51663
OptionVotes
2342
427
Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?
Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
52.27%chance
181608
OptionVotes
1091
1070
Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?
Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
92.93%chance
291557
OptionVotes
363
28
Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?
Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.41%chance
5720
OptionVotes
1713
584
third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?
May 23, 4:58 PMJul 1, 4:55 PM
30%chance
6673
OptionVotes
1304
838
Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?
Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
38.27%chance
18455
OptionVotes
1081
940
Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 8, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.71%chance
2300
OptionVotes
1300
958
Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100?
Jun 12, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.66%chance
7274
OptionVotes
348
70
Russia announces new wave of mobilization before June 2027
Oct 20, 3:02 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
25%chance
11219
OptionVotes
173
58
Will Sesame Smart Glasses have a wave guide visual display?
Oct 28, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.83%chance
6134
OptionVotes
1087
920
Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?
Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.95%chance
350
OptionVotes
122
66
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