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Prediction markets for Waves
OptionVotes
1069
918
Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026
Jun 1, 8:52 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM
21%chance
224019
OptionVotes
1940
516
Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?
Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
52.27%chance
181608
OptionVotes
1091
1070
third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?
May 23, 4:58 PMJul 1, 4:55 PM
30%chance
6673
OptionVotes
1304
838
Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?
Jul 28, 6:17 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
20%chance
13520
OptionVotes
200
50
Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?
Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
38.27%chance
18455
OptionVotes
1081
940
Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 8, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.71%chance
2300
OptionVotes
1300
958
Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?
Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.45%chance
5220
OptionVotes
1213
824
Will NASA and the ESA still be collaboratively pursuing the LISA gravitational wave mission in 2028?
Jan 10, 5:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
87.24%chance
5154
OptionVotes
268
84
Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?
Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.95%chance
350
OptionVotes
122
66
Will drinking heavy water/deuterium significantly affect relative ratio of fast to slow brain waves (and 1/f falloff)?
Jan 25, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.02%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
Will the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration publish evidence of "gravitational wave echoes" by EOY 2030
Mar 12, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5%chance
12
OptionVotes
100
100
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