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Where will the next generation EU gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) be built?
Sep 21, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1018283
OptionProbability
42
23
15
11
9
OptionVotes
1085
906
Will Iran launch the 100th wave of missile/drone strike under "Operation True Promise 4" before March 27?
Mar 18, 1:30 AMMar 26, 3:59 AM
19.94%chance
251959
OptionVotes
200
50
Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?
Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50%chance
171558
OptionVotes
1139
1020
Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?
Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
79.97%chance
271481
OptionVotes
200
50
Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?
Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
38.27%chance
18455
OptionVotes
1081
940
Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 8, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.71%chance
2300
OptionVotes
1300
958
Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100?
Jun 12, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.66%chance
7274
OptionVotes
348
70
Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?
Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.45%chance
5220
OptionVotes
1213
824
Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?
Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.95%chance
350
OptionVotes
122
66
Will drinking heavy water/deuterium significantly affect relative ratio of fast to slow brain waves (and 1/f falloff)?
Jan 25, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.02%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
Will the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration publish evidence of "gravitational wave echoes" by EOY 2030
Mar 12, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5%chance
12
OptionVotes
100
100
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