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Top stories

GOP Lawmakers Tour Factories to Tout Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’

GOP Lawmakers Tour Factories to Tout Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Ways and Means

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.36%chance

15987847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4330

2508

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

1758396

OptionProbability

Dec 2026 or later/never

Oct 2026

Nov 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

83

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

64.89%chance

11854076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1372

127

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17245335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

564

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

155892

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.32%chance

352627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

775

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026?

May 5, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.2%chance

11747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

550

18

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