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Prediction markets for Ways and Means
Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
74.3%chance
15386753
OptionVotes
6266
1436
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?
Oct 26, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
70.33%chance
19776614
OptionVotes
4812
2062
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.44%chance
15835470
OptionVotes
1721
1121
Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
26.53%chance
1418546
OptionVotes
1664
601
OptionProbability
89
83
68
63
51
50
50
22
0
Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?
Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM
37.29%chance
2515523
OptionVotes
1146
437
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.12%chance
3612488
OptionVotes
19925
5019
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM
6.31%chance
906445
OptionVotes
1978
1525
OptionVotes
1600
888
Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040
Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
32.77%chance
342620
OptionVotes
1042
789
Will this market "Are aliens watching Earth?" be resolved in a way I consider meaningful and supported?
Feb 15, 2:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.42%chance
15780
OptionVotes
997
979
How does Thresholding work in Alexander Wales web serial Thresholder? [Spoilers]
Jul 8, 7:25 PMAug 6, 10:59 PM
5159
OptionProbability
88
81
79
71
50
44
43
40