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Wikimedia News

    Prediction markets for Wikimedia

    OptionProbability

    Deaths in 2025

    Other

    .xxx

    1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre

    Donald Trump

    Elon Musk

    Indian Premier League

    ChatGPT

    Existential risk from artificial intelligence

    Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Wikipedia

    Taylor Swift

    JD Vance

    Project 2025

    Taiwan

    66

    17

    5

    4

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Deaths in 2025

    Donald Trump

    ChatGPT

    Indian Premier League

    Elon Musk

    Pope Leo XIV

    Zohran Mamdani

    Wikipedia

    United States

    Sinners (2025 film)

    1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre

    JD Vance

    Taylor Swift

    Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    Superman (2025 film)

    Project 2025

    Avatar: Fire and Ash

    99

    89

    85

    81

    79

    65

    64

    62

    55

    55

    50

    39

    18

    17

    13

    11

    9

    Who has received USAID funding?

    Feb 5, 5:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    123398

    OptionProbability

    Reuters

    The Washington Post

    NBC

    Associated Press

    NPR

    MSNBC

    The Wall Street Journal

    Axios

    Wired

    CNN

    Environmental Defense Fund

    The Trump Organization

    The New York Times

    Wikimedia Foundation

    Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

    Sierra Club

    Black Lives Matter

    Greenpeace

    Hamas

    41

    38

    36

    34

    32

    30

    30

    30

    30

    28

    25

    25

    21

    21

    20

    18

    13

    13

    12

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    410

    38

    Where will I work on 2025-11-01?

    Nov 1, 2:20 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM
    102050

    OptionProbability

    OpenAI

    Other

    Google DeepMind

    Alphabet but not Google DeepMind

    Anthropic

    xAI

    I will not be employed

    The Center for Humane Technology

    Protocol Labs

    Center for AI Safety

    Alignment Research Center

    MIRI

    Future of Life Institute

    Ought

    METR

    AI Safety Institute

    WIkimedia Foundation

    Mozilla Foundation

    OpenStreetMap Foundation

    50

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    Will Wikipedia be unavailable in the UK before 2027 due to the OSA?

    Jul 29, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    30.72%chance
    17941

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1502

    666

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    221

    45

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