OptionProbability
Opus 5.1 or higher update before Q4
Haiku gets it's 5 version
IPO Valuation: $2 trillion+
Anthropic partners with a major cloud provider for exclusive compute capacity
Claude introduces long-term memory or persistent workspace features
Anthropic launches a new enterprise-focused data analysis tool
Anthropic acquires a specialized AI research startup
Fable retires before EOY
Antropics IPO happens before Nov '26
Claude monthly plan pricing is reduced by more than 20%
Anthropic announces an open-weights model release
100
78
72
59
53
30
26
15
8
6
Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods
Well-known researcher attempts to reproduce global workspace results on open-weight models
Well-known researcher uses Anthropic’s methods on open-weight models to find novel evidence of a global workspace
Paper providing independent evidence of global workspace passes peer review in any major conference
Well-known researcher casts public doubt on Anthropic’s claims, methods, or results
70
54
47
40
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1149
427
263
38
176
85
1000
