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Top stories

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh Announces Rs 66,000 Crore Tejas Order, India-France AMCA Mk-2 Engine Deal, and Meteor Missiles Delivery

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh Announces Rs 66,000 Crore Tejas Order, India-France AMCA Mk-2 Engine Deal, and Meteor Missiles Delivery

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for World Bank

In which decade will China's GDP surpass US GDP?

Nov 3, 6:03 PMSep 30, 9:59 PM

5368847

OptionProbability

after 2049 or never

2030-2039

2040-49

before 2030

37

30

18

15

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

Sep 4, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

10222271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1378

983

Who will sit on the Board of Peace?

Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:11 AM

3619938

OptionProbability

Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

Javier Milei (Argentine President)

Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

Emmanuel Macron (French President)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

95

93

91

34

31

20

14

13

7

6

5

4

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213780

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

56

54

54

49

44

43

40

36

34

17

Which of the following countries will be the biggest country by GDP in 2050?

Dec 18, 9:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

422639

OptionProbability

The USA

China

India

Other

Japan

Germany

Russia

55

36

5

3

0

0

0

Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035?

Feb 11, 12:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

17.02%chance

141159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

747

Will the US Gini coefficient as measured by the World Bank exceed 41.5 in 2028?

Oct 31, 2:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.12%chance

7372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

49

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

When will World Bank classify India as Upper-Middle Income?

Oct 5, 7:00 PMOct 5, 6:58 PM

4227

OptionProbability

2036-2040

2041-2045

2031-2035

2046-2050

2026-2030

26

22

21

20

11

Will the World Bank lose it's AAA credit rating (2030)

Apr 4, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.34%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Which World Bank economic measure best conveys how powerful countries are relative to each other?

Nov 25, 1:30 AM

140

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