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Abbas News

    Prediction markets for Abbas

    OptionProbability

    Taylor Swift

    Donald Trump

    Artificial Intelligence

    J. D. Vance

    Jensen Huang

    Pope Leo XIV

    Xi Jinping

    Elon Musk

    Donald Trump (again, after 2024)

    Gavin Newsom

    Any Protestor

    The civillians/the victims of war/the bystanders

    Pete Hegseth

    Gen Z

    Sam Altman

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    OpenAI

    Tsai Ing-wen

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Vladimir Putin

    Liang Feng

    Marine Le Pen

    Jeremy Hansen

    Dario Amodei

    The Union Workers

    SCOTUS

    Narendra Modi

    The AI builders/engineers/scientists/leaders

    Sundar Pichai

    Christina Koch

    Victor Glover

    ChatGPT

    Emmanuel Macron

    The Ukrainian Soldier

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud

    A.G.I.

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Reid Wiseman

    Mahmud Abbas

    Kamala Harris

    Trump Prosecutors

    Larry Ellison

    mRNA vaccine researchers

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Robots

    The spirit of Palestine

    Hollywood strikers

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Charles III

    Fumio Kishida

    Nikki Haley

    Ray Kurzweil

    Matt Gaetz

    Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes

    Travis Kelce

    Jon Bon Jovi

    Geoffrey Hinton

    The spirit of Israel

    Sergey Sobyanin

    Lil Tay

    Logan Paul

    Barron Trump

    Joe Biden

    Jerome Powell

    Pierre Poilievre

    Cenk Uygur

    Annie Altman

    Jimmy Carter

    Israel Defense Forces

    Nvidia

    100

    100

    46

    25

    23

    18

    17

    16

    15

    14

    14

    13

    13

    12

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Dick Cheney

    Twomad

    William James Pye

    O. J. Simpson

    Anita Bryant

    James D. Worley

    Robert Bowers (Pittsburgh synagogue gunman)

    Clarence Thomas

    Frank O. Gehry

    Tomiichi Murayama

    William Bill Post (inventor of poptart)

    Bruce Willis

    Robert Redford

    Akihito

    Woody Allen

    Klaus Schwab

    Roman Polanski

    Ban Ki-moon

    Keith Richards

    Tippi Hendren

    Dan Schneider

    Mel Brooks

    William Shatner

    Ethel Kennedy

    Thomas Pynchon

    Toby Keith

    Clarence Thomas

    Matt Groening

    Joe Pesci

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Nancy Pelosi

    Charles E. Grassley

    Thomas Eugene Creech

    Raul Castro

    Meryl Streep

    Alan Greenspan

    Gary Glitter

    Slavoj Zizek

    Ringo Starr

    Al Pacino

    Samuel Alito

    Neil Gorsuch

    Volodymyr Zelensky

    Mahmoud Abbas

    Larry David

    Bill Clinton

    George Bush

    Dick van Dyke

    Mitch McConnell

    Yaroslav Hunka

    Anwar Raslan

    Dennis Rader (btk)

    Howard Stern

    Clint Eastwood

    Bill Cosby

    Ron Jeremy

    Stephen Breyer

    Judge Judy Sheindlin

    Joe Arpaio

    David Berkowitz (son of sam)

    Milan Panić

    Gene Hackman

    Noam Chomsky

    Angela Merkel

    Scott Adams (Dilbert Cartoonist)

    Jesse Jackson

    Joe Biden

    Donald Trump

    Bill Gates

    Mike Tyson

    Brett Kavanaugh

    Vladimir Putin

    King Charles III

    Bernie Sanders

    George RR Martin

    Paul McCartney

    Amy Coney Barrett

    Jose Luis Ricon

    Warren Buffett

    Pope Francis

    Bob Dylan

    Jimmy Carter

    Alexei Navalny

    Iris Apfel

    Carl Weathers

    Richard Lewis

    Kelvin Kiptum

    Juan Vicente Perez

    Bob Moore

    Sebastián Piñera

    Daniel Kahneman

    Joe Lieberman

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    89

    54

    44

    37

    36

    18

    16

    12

    11

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

    Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

    Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

    Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

    Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

    Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

    Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

    Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

    Donald Trump, US President, 1946

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939

    91

    85

    78

    76

    66

    46

    43

    39

    23

    21

    17

    7

    OptionProbability

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (1939)

    Raul Castro (1931)

    Donald Trump (1946)

    Nicolas Maduro (1962)

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy (1978)

    Mahmoud Abbas (1935)

    Vladimir Putin (1952)

    Xi Jinping (1953)

    Alexander Lukashenko (1954)

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (1954)

    Tony Blair (1953)

    Jair Bolsonaro (1955)

    Narendra Modi (1950)

    Bashar al-Assad (1965)

    Kim Jong Un (1982, 1983, or 1984)

    Viktor Orbán (1963)

    Nicolas Sarkozy (1955)

    Angela Merkel (1954)

    Boris Johnson (1964)

    17

    16

    6

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Naftali Bennett

    Avigdor Lieberman

    Mansour Abbas

    Yair Golan

    Benny Gantz

    Yair Lapid

    Nir Barkat

    Yitzhak Goldknopf

    Yoav Gallant

    Bezalel Smotrich

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    65

    65

    65

    60

    59

    54

    50

    41

    39

    37

    35

    OptionProbability

    Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

    Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939

    Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

    Donald Trump, US President, 1946

    Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

    Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

    Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

    Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

    Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

    33

    21

    13

    9

    5

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Abdul-Malik Badr al-Din al-Houthi

    Mohammad Pakpour (Iran)

    Min Aung Hlaing

    Mahmoud Abbas

    Nayib Bukele

    Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin

    Donald Trump

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    67 Sahur

    Lula

    34

    22

    13

    12

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    0

    Who will replace Mahmoud Abbas as President?

    Dec 4, 3:51 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM
    15701

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Hussein Al-Sheikh

    Marwan Barghouti

    Mohammed Dahlan

    Mohammad Shtayyeh

    No one

    57

    11

    9

    8

    8

    6

    OptionProbability

    Rawhi Fattouh

    Other

    Hussein al-Sheikh (currently secretary-general of the Executive Committee)

    Mohammad Shtayyeh (current Prime Minister)

    Marwan Barghouti (currently in prison)

    Mohammed Dahlan (currently in exile in UAE)

    Ismail Haniyeh (Current Hamas leader, in exile in Qatar)

    46

    25

    12

    7

    6

    3

    1

    Will Mahmoud Abbas be still alive on the 1st of January 2026?

    Nov 12, 7:53 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
    85.04%chance
    8423

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    238

    42

    OptionProbability

    Donald Trump (1946)

    Vladimir Putin (1952)

    Bashar al-Assad (1965)

    Xi Jinping (1953)

    Nicolas Maduro (1962)

    Alexander Lukashenko (1954)

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy (1978)

    Angela Merkel (1954)

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (1954)

    Viktor Orbán (1963)

    Nicolas Sarkozy (1955)

    Tony Blair (1953)

    Jair Bolsonaro (1955)

    Narendra Modi (1950)

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (1939)

    Kim Jong Un (1982, 1983, or 1984)

    Mahmoud Abbas (1935)

    Boris Johnson (1964)

    Raul Castro (1931)

    Dick Cheney (1941)

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    4

    3

    1

    Will Alia Abbas become a Thiel Fellow?

    Jan 12, 7:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    21.04%chance
    470

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    155

    58

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