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Prediction markets for Agarwal
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
4340370
OptionProbability
92
91
88
84
81
80
65
42
35
30
29
22
3
1
Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?
Jan 4, 7:18 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
7513519
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
97
86
84
81
78
78
75
74
73
69
68
65
65
65
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
60
59
59
55
54
54
54
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
48
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
41
41
41
39
39
39
39
36
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
31
31
31
30
30
28
28
23
23
22
22
21
18
17
14
14
9
8
7
5
5
Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?
Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM
78.41%chance
2410
OptionVotes
1363
876
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