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Prediction markets for Alex
Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?
May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM
15%chance
253022
OptionVotes
2380
420
Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 27, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
3.25%chance
62931
OptionVotes
3885
802
OptionVotes
1334
835
OptionProbability
722
546
Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 20, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
8.62%chance
51240
OptionVotes
1599
926
OptionVotes
1273
885
Any charges filed against the Border Patrol agent who shot and killed Alex Pretti? (Jan 24, Minneapolis)
Jan 24, 5:30 PMDec 31, 5:28 PM
231099
OptionProbability
53
36
24
17
12
Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?
Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
62.48%chance
25947
OptionVotes
1140
739
OptionVotes
1022
979
OptionVotes
535
14
Will anyone be prosecuted for the murder of Alex Pretti by the end of 2027?
Feb 23, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.58%chance
581
OptionVotes
180
56
Will Alex Zhu achieve at least Stage7 jhana by EOY2029?
Jul 22, 10:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.25%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91
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