OptionVotes
NO
YES
1427
701
1836
545
OptionProbability
Jess Wilson
Ben Carroll
Warren Pickering
Other
Jacinta Allan
Brad Battin
47
45
4
1
0
The Age endorses Labor
Jacinta Allan retains her seat
Labor wins more seats than One Nation
Greens primary vote share increases
Greens win more seats than the Nationals
The election results in a hung parliament
Statewide Treaty Act 2025 is repealed by the end of 2027
Victoria holds a referendum on electoral reform by the end of 2028
SRL North is cancelled, postponed or downsized by the end of 2028
Group voting tickets are abolished before the election
One Nation wins more seats than the Liberals
The Herald Sun endorses One Nation
Jacinta Allan leads Labor to the election
77
55
50
40
35
20
Nate Silver
Allan Lichtman
67
33
