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Alpha Condé News

    Prediction markets for Alpha Condé

    What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

    Feb 28, 8:03 PMJan 9, 4:59 AM
    16659361

    OptionProbability

    Officials Say

    With Biden

    Trump Wins

    Court Orders

    Found dead

    Texas Fire

    Civil war

    Olympic Gold

    Climate Change

    Bird Flu

    Supreme Court

    Trade War

    Southern Border

    Border Crisis

    Artificial Intelligence

    Landmark Decision

    Second Term

    Inflation down

    federal reserve

    Officials Insist

    Tension Builds

    Vows to

    Drone Strike

    Trump Ordered

    A.I. Legislation

    Earthquake Kills

    Former President

    New report

    Death Toll

    at Odds

    European Union

    Talks Between

    declares war

    Assassination Attempt

    AI Czar

    Keir Starmer

    National Emergency

    On record

    Lawmakers Move

    Tipping Point

    Summer Olympic Games

    Fake news

    Impeachment Inquiry

    Takes Gold

    Chemical weapon

    Officials Worry

    First Ever

    threat to democracy

    Trump guilty

    Cancer cure

    nuclear weapon

    market crashes

    In Historic Decision

    Hoping To

    Officials Declare

    Officials Deny

    Alleged genocide

    Highest Ever

    Strikes continue

    Ceasefire Agreement

    Republicans Lose

    Third attempt

    nuclear bomb

    Kremlin Says

    court allows

    Nuclear war

    General Condemns

    Joins NATO

    Swift Becomes

    Musk donates

    Tempers Flare

    Dalai Lama

    Homelessness ban

    Generation Alpha

    Haley announces

    In Setback

    Double Knockout

    Supreme Court, 9-0

    Most Ever

    Trump Convicted

    Take Home

    Leaves NATO

    trump’s assassin

    Olympic Debut

    Carter Dead

    Talks Begin

    Presidential library

    Revolutionary Song

    Artificial General Intelligence

    69 billion

    Harris Wins

    "French Fries"

    Biden Announces

    Occult hand

    Effective Altruism

    Sudden Death

    Demands Justice

    TikToker Found

    Feared dead following

    Apocalypse imminent

    Biden Wins

    Florida Man

    Trump Dead

    Holy hell

    Putin Dead

    Biden Dead

    owo what's this

    I Like Ike

    Astral Codex Ten

    Manifold Markets

    Ghost Trees

    Williamson Wins

    Africa Toto

    General Condoms

    Dewey Defeats Truman

    En passant forced

    Titanic 2 Sinks

    skibidi toilet

    never gonna give you up

    Rationalussy Cult

    "Vriska did nothing wrong"

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    58

    57

    55

    54

    51

    50

    50

    49

    49

    49

    48

    47

    46

    46

    45

    44

    44

    43

    42

    40

    39

    39

    39

    38

    37

    37

    36

    36

    35

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    33

    32

    32

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    30

    30

    30

    29

    29

    29

    29

    28

    28

    27

    27

    27

    26

    25

    24

    24

    24

    23

    22

    22

    21

    20

    19

    18

    17

    15

    15

    15

    14

    14

    13

    13

    12

    12

    12

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?

    Dec 2, 4:27 AMJan 2, 5:04 AM
    88.19%chance
    639539

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2732

    366

    What will be true of the Homestuck SpindleRoo animated adaptation?

    Aug 9, 8:17 PMApr 13, 8:10 PM
    99130

    OptionProbability

    @Robincvgr will think the pilot is good

    A poll of Manifold users will think the pilot is good (tie = NO)

    All beta trolls appear

    Toby Fox voices John in the pilot

    Any troll other than Karkat appears in the pilot

    Any troll appears in the pilot

    We see a troll "in person" before or simultaneously with a troll contacting a human

    Toby Fox is still voicing John in his last appearance

    The series has a second episode

    The series has a second episode AND there is a new "first episode" substantially different from the pilot

    Anyone says "Sweet Bro and Hella Jeff"

    Megalovania plays

    The phrase, "We're doing it, man. We're making this happen," or any misspelling or minor variant thereof, appears.

    Cascade is adapted

    Megalovania plays before Megalovania plays in Deltarune (Resolves NO if Megalovania never appears in HS, even if it never appears in Deltarune either)

    Vriska does something wrong (as judged by Robin)

    The show will generally cover most of the events of the first five acts

    Eddie Morton recording of I'm a Member of the Midnight Crew is sampled or played

    The first time a troll contacts a kid, the troll can see the kid but the kid cannot see the troll

    Dave's strifes with Bro are more intense or violent than John's strifes with Dad, as judged by @Robincvgr (N/A if either has no strifes depicted)

    "Betty Crocker" or the names of any General Mills products (e.g. Gushers) are directly spoken

    @Robincvgr will think the series overall is good

    Any VA changes between the pilot releasing and the last episode releasing

    The total runtime of the series is at least 413 minutes

    The show will generally cover most of the events of the entire webcomic

    Dante Basco voices Rufioh (N/A if Rufioh never appears)

    All alpha trolls appear

    A substantial portion of any Michael Guy Bowman music appears

    Any part of the plot from HS:BC is covered

    Anyone says "retard(ed)" in the pilot

    The beginning of the series does not take place on April 13, 2009 (and the date is specified)

    Oil-retcon–like oil appears in John's house in the pilot

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    86

    85

    75

    73

    63

    62

    61

    61

    59

    59

    55

    55

    52

    52

    50

    50

    43

    31

    31

    30

    24

    10

    0

    0

    0

    What will be the name of the singleton AI that uplifts humanity?

    Feb 26, 7:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    253332

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Prime Intellect

    Elua

    Singleton

    Creature

    Gemini

    Divine Excrement

    Mrs Davis

    "AI"

    "Computer"

    Grok

    Neuromancer/Wintermute

    Deep Thought

    Alpha

    Mike

    Mira

    77

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

    Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
    372082

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Zoomer

    Alpha

    Millennial

    Gamma

    Beta

    67

    9

    9

    6

    5

    4

    DeepSeek V3.2 wins Alpha Arena Season 1.5

    Nov 11, 1:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    36.21%chance
    111124

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1327

    753

    Nick Adams (Alpha Male) confirmed as ambassador to Malaysia this year?

    Jul 10, 3:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    54.53%chance
    10830

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1095

    913

    What will be the first star system visited by humans beyond the Sun?

    Aug 13, 11:57 AMAug 13, 11:57 AM
    8442

    OptionProbability

    Alpha Centauri A & B

    Proxima Centauri

    Other

    Ross 128

    Barnard’s Star

    Wolf 359

    TRAPPIST-1

    34

    27

    9

    8

    7

    7

    7

    Which generation will the first human to walk on Mars be?

    Sep 17, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:10 PM
    12416

    OptionProbability

    Generation Z (born from 1997 to 2012)

    Generation Alpha or younger (born since 2013)

    Millennial (born from 1981 to 1996)

    Generation X (born from 1965 to 1980)

    Silent Generation or older (born until 1945)

    Baby Boomer (born from 1946 to 1964)

    47

    26

    19

    4

    2

    2

    When will the first human colony be established in Alpha Centauri

    Jun 5, 9:48 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM
    11139

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Never, humans go extinct before colonizing Alpha Centauri.

    2100

    2075

    2050

    Not before 2200.

    2150

    51

    18

    12

    9

    4

    4

    2

    Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show a[n implied] drop in Gen Alpha afab non-cis rates, from 2025, in 2035?

    Nov 18, 5:06 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM
    54.53%chance
    4105

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1095

    913

    Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show >1.25x OR <0.8x ratio between Gen Alpha M VS F non-cis rates in 2035?

    Nov 18, 4:35 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM
    54.53%chance
    2105

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1095

    913

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