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Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?
Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM
3.29%chance
13998817
OptionVotes
35597
525
Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?
Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
2.44%chance
13686082
OptionVotes
6685
1740
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?
Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 12:40 AM
1%chance
4173665
OptionVotes
6112
838
Will consumer electronics feature room temperature ambient pressure superconductors before 2025?
Jul 31, 5:00 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
2.56%chance
394225
OptionVotes
3804
810
Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2030?
Aug 3, 7:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
8.11%chance
181522
OptionVotes
2208
807
What will be the price of 1kg of room-temperature ambient pressure superconductor in 2033?
Aug 3, 4:10 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
80.28%chance
201472
OptionProbability
1099
901
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print ever get replicated?
Mar 4, 10:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
12.5%chance
19603
OptionVotes
1275
917
Room temperature ambient pressure transmutation of lead into gold, by 2030
Jan 11, 1:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
3%chance
4483
OptionVotes
503
82
Will there be a mag-lev train using ambient-temperature superconductivity by Jan 1st 2030?
Aug 1, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.47%chance
8398
OptionVotes
220
95
Which country will develop the first confirmed peer reviewed room temperature ambient pressure superconductor ?
Mar 18, 3:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16358
OptionProbability
30
20
12
12
9
7
6
3
2
[Metaculus] Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?
Oct 7, 12:41 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM
7.18%chance
6234
OptionVotes
335
85
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