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Prediction markets for Amin

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5710723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1680

309

Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?

May 8, 3:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

263095

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Praggnanandhaa R

Hikaru Nakamura

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Arjun Erigaisi

Alireza Firouzja

Magnus Carlsen

Gukesh D

Wei Yi

Other

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Viswanathan Anand

Sergey Karjakin

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Anish Giri

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Parham Maghsoodloo

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Quang Liem Le

Levon Aronian

Veselin Topalov

Teimour Radjabov

Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Yu Yangyi

Alexander Grischuk

Richard Rapport

Vladislav Artemiev

Alexey Sarana

Daniil Dubov

Wang Hao

M. Amin Tabatabaei

N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

21

14

12

7

7

7

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

84.33%chance

272338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2215

512

If Trump is elected, will he attempt to pardon himself?

Sep 19, 12:16 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

47.28%chance

332322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

471

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

May 8, 3:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

282141

OptionProbability

Gukesh D

Fabiano Caruana

Praggnanandhaa R

Hikaru Nakamura

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Arjun Erigaisi

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Ding Liren

Magnus Carlsen

Wei Yi

Anish Giri

Alireza Firouzja

Daniil Dubov

Other

Wesley So

Viswanathan Anand

Sergey Karjakin

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Parham Maghsoodloo

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Quang Liem Le

Levon Aronian

Veselin Topalov

Teimour Radjabov

Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Yu Yangyi

Alexander Grischuk

Richard Rapport

Vladislav Artemiev

Alexey Sarana

Wang Hao

M. Amin Tabatabaei

N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

50

9

7

6

4

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?

Oct 5, 9:51 PMDec 26, 4:59 AM

33.08%chance

201776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1556

490

Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025?

Nov 20, 4:11 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

30.89%chance

171178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

611

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

19.25%chance

15578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

904

Will Amin Aalipour (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 15, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.28%chance

10344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

156

Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

80.83%chance

15336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

949

Will Amin H. Nasser (CEO of Saudi Aramco) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 13, 1:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.3%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

86

Will automated chemical synthesis produce heavy nitrogen/hydrogen versions of every amino acid >50% of sites by EOY 2025

Nov 15, 3:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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