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Prediction markets for Archie
Which Tier-1 studio/corporation will acquire The Architect (Siberian Node) first?
Apr 18, 11:54 AMDec 31, 12:21 PM
2034266
OptionProbability
96
2
1
0
0
0
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
33.07%chance
5810769
OptionVotes
11052
10904
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Aug 12, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
5.77%chance
435651
OptionVotes
3443
143
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
Aug 14, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.35%chance
292288
OptionVotes
2041
490
Will Hachette v. Internet Archive be heard by the Supreme Court?
Mar 25, 4:26 AMJan 1, 1:00 PM
8%chance
232206
OptionVotes
2818
588
OptionVotes
2064
1751
Will I find a way to archive Mojang's JIRA/Atlassian instance before it goes down? (Please make suggestions.)
Jun 19, 12:59 AMJan 2, 1:55 AM
39.6%chance
51081
OptionVotes
1235
810
Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?
Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
54.33%chance
21752
OptionVotes
1155
804
Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]
Dec 25, 1:31 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
38.74%chance
15602
OptionVotes
1457
709
Mistborn/Stormlight Archive TV show/movie begins filming by EOY 2028?
Jan 28, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.13%chance
10435
OptionVotes
1154
651
By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?
May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM
62.04%chance
19362
OptionVotes
1010
954
Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?
Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
12
OptionVotes
100
100
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