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Bannon News

Bannon Presses GOP to Sell Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Amid Weak Polls

US Elections

US Legislation

US Domestic Policy

Bannon Presses GOP to Sell Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Amid Weak Polls

4 months ago

Steve Bannon Criticizes Article 5 Security Guarantee for Ukraine, Warns of Troop Commitments and Rising $54 Billion Bailout Amid Europe’s Defense Refusal

War

US Legislation

US Foreign Policy

Steve Bannon Criticizes Article 5 Security Guarantee for Ukraine, Warns of Troop Commitments and Rising $54 Billion Bailout Amid Europe’s Defense Refusal

4 months ago

Commerce Chief Lutnick Plans Overhaul of H-1B and Green-Card Rules

US Domestic Policy

Politics

Commerce Chief Lutnick Plans Overhaul of H-1B and Green-Card Rules

3 months ago

US Legislation

US Foreign Policy

US Domestic Policy

Steve Bannon Calls for Accountability on Abbey Gate Anniversary, Criticizes H-1B Visa Program and CCP Influence

3 months ago

Europe

War

US Foreign Policy

Bannon Criticizes Europe’s $58B Ukraine Aid Failure, Cites 625,000 Casualties; Parsi and Netanyahu Warn U.S. on Iran War

3 months ago

Ukraine

War

US Legislation

Bannon Rips GOP Leaders Over Reported $58 Billion Ukraine Aid Push

4 months ago

US Elections

War

US Foreign Policy

VP J.D. Vance Ends U.S. Funding for Ukraine War as Bannon Urges America First Policy, No Troops in Europe

4 months ago

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Nov 6, 5:48 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

1485935735

OptionProbability

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

trump gets hospitalized

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Approval < 35%

A new supreme court justice appointed

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

Joe Biden dies

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Dow rises above 65,000

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

US national bitcoin reserve created

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

A major war in Asia occurs

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

New national park created

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Tesla

Trump announces he is tired of winning

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

The department of education gets desolved

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump and Obama shake hands

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Record level unemployment

Repeal obamacare

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

10% fewer government agencies

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

55 or more Republican senate seats

54 or more Republican senate seats

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Starship lands on Mars

Approval < 25%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump runs for a third term

Trump is seen shirtless

south park is canceled/discontinued

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump gets shot

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

BTC falls below $38,000

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Cannabis is federally legalized

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Constitutional Amendment

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat

100

🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 24, 7:07 PMDec 28, 4:59 AM

302298061

OptionProbability

Adolf Hitler

George Santos

Benito Mussolini

Vladimir Putin

Joseph Stalin

Kanye West

Kim Jong-un

Derek Chauvin

Xi Jinping

Jeffrey Epstein

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Dan Schneider

David Duke

Tucker Carlson

Mao Zedong

Viktor Orbán

Genghis Khan

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Thanos

Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars

Dolores Umbridge

Nero (Roman emperor)

Bill Cipher

Curtis Yarvin

Nick Land

Shaun King

Caligula

King Leopold II of Belgium

Negan Smith

Alex Jones

Augusto Pinochet

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

A paperclip-maximizing AGI

Lauren Boebert

Pennywise, the clown from “It”

Vlad the Impaler

Saddam Hussein

Commodus

Cthulhu

Hirohito

Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan

Joffrey Baratheon

Sauron

Hong Xiuquan

SCP-682

Uday Hussein

Nicolas Maduro

Jabba the Hutt

Kyle Rittenhouse

Lee Harvey Oswald

Robert Edward Lee

Pol Pot

The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)

Anders Breivik

Voldemort

Chris Benoit

Rush Limbaugh

Gannondorf

Bobby Fischer

Charles Manson

The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II

Jair Bolsonaro

Drake

Hugo Chavez

Chris Chan

Phillipe Petain

A random convicted murderer

Andrew Tate

A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well

Cersei Lannister

Dylan Klebold

Trump's attempted assassin

A severe case of ulcerative colitis

A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president

Donald Trump

Kang and/or Kodos

Satan

A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants

Albert Speer

Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

Steve Bannon

Josh Hawley

A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life

Ron Unz

Ivan the terrible

Otto Skorzeny

Karl Donitz

Christoper Rufo

John Hinckley Jr.

The Loc-Nar

The Grim Reaper

Charles "Chuck" Johnson

Pat Buchanan

A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"

Whatifalthist

Franz von Papen

A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person

Erich von Manstein

Nikita Khrushchev

Judas Iscariot

Lyndon LaRouche

Joseph McCarthy

The CEO of MALIBAL

Erich Ludendorff

Roko

Mark Foley

Andronikos II Palaiologos

Liu Shan

Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson

Godzilla

Hasan Piker / Hasanabi

Unabomber

Sima Zhong

LEROY JENKINS

CHELSEA VOSS

Laria Reynolds

Ornlu the Wolf

Jozef Tiso

Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)

A cockroach

Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho

Alfred Packer

Brent Dill

Steve Sailer

Erwin Rommel

Gongsun Yuan

Hasso von Manteuffel

King John

EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD

qin shi huang

Shang Yang

Richard Lynn

James Longstreet

Niko Bellic

Hunter Biden's laptop

The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering

Commodus

Paul Von Hindenburg

Tito

Thomas Midgley Jr.

an asi agent from openai

Vriska Serket

Yuan Shu

Miklos Horthy

Franz Joseph 1

WILLY ON WHEELS

J. Philippe Rushton

Lu Bu

Yuan Shikai

Juan Peron

Connor Duffy

Faust

Charles XII of Sweden

Zhou Enlai

Samuel Alito

@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)

Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)

Giego Caleiro

Fredrick Robert Brennan

Mehmed V

Black Hat (XKCD)

Jeremy Nixon

Charles Murray

Paul Ehrlich

Michael de Santa

anatoly karlin

Jonathan Anomaly

Alexey Guzey

King George III of England

Yuan Shao

Jar Jar Binks

Peter Thiel

Liang Mong-song

Lucy Guo

Klaus Schwab

Karl Marx

Stephen Hsu

James Buchanan

A literal ham sandwich

A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America

Rochelle Shen

JD Vance

Emperor Ling of Han

Ada Nguyen

Sean Hannity

Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe

Salvador Allende

James Dewey Watson

Laura Gao

Claire Wang

Eren Yeager

@ButtocksCocktoasten

Jiang Zemin

Rorschach

Wario

goth600

Any child of Trump (randomly selected)

Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger

Elagabalus

Lex Luthor

A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President

Light Yagami

A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape

Neville Chamberlain

Bad Bunny

Rod Blagojevich

Brian Chau (@psychosort)

Chris Brown

Richard Watterson (from Gumball)

Hans Niemann

Silvio Berlusconi

Timothy Leary

John Edwards

George Floyd

Hunter Biden

Razib Khan

Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)

A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US

Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)

Kim Dotcom

Waluigi

Deng Xiaoping

Empress Dowager Cixi

Brian Tomasik

Your mom

THEAMAZINGATHEIST

Richard Hanania

A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma

Chuck Norris

You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)

Stan Smith

Ray Shaun Elussy

Lucille Bluth

Michael Vassar

An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Santa Claus

Kristi Noem's dog

Moses (Bible)

Yourself right now

Justin Trudeau

Elizabeth Holmes

Eminem

A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma

Futarchy (Manifold users)

Nicky Case

Robespierre

Yourself from 15 years ago

Greta Thunberg

Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony

@strutheo :)

Bill Gates

Gavin Newsom

Hillary Clinton

Walter White

Chat GPT

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Destiny

George Soros

Bill Cosby

Ellen DeGeneres

Harvey Weinstein

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

A can of beans

George W. Bush

Richard Nixon

Jeremy Corbyn

Joe Biden

Julius Caesar

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Yasser Arafat

Shinzo Abe

Gus Fring

Frank Underwood

Mr Burns

Mr Krabs

Peter Griffin

Homer Simpson

Hank Hill

Cruella De Vil

Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)

Ibram X. Kendi

Rachel Dolezal

Nayib Bukele

Ayn Rand

Barack Obama

Young Sheldon

Tony Soprano

Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)

Dr Robotnik / Eggman

Vivek Ramaswamy

Taylor Swift

Joe Rogan

Javier Milei

Emmanuel Macron

Doctor Manhattan

Bill Clinton

Donkey Kong

Rudy Giuliani

An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Sam Bankman-Fried

Cedric the Entertainer

Glenn Quagmire

Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)

Gollum/Smeagol

Matthew Yglesias

Vaush

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

Donald Trump Jr

Napoleon Bonaparte

Jordan Peterson

Scar (lion king)

Margaret Thatcher

Andrew Johnson

Bill Ackman

Bernie Madoff

Jussie Smollet

Avon Barksdale

Yann Lecun

The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party

Elon Musk

Paul Atreides

Cenk Uygur

Georgia Meloni

Boris Johnson

Trump from the 80s-90s

Shirley Temple

Mark Rutte

Michael Jackson

James (manifold)

Austin (manifold)

George Washington

Zaphod Beeblebrox

Mr Garrison (South Park)

Lee Pace

Muhammad the prophet

Jose Luis Ricon

BasedBeffJezos

Mike Pence

Nate Silver

Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)

Confucius

hari seldon

Teddy Roosevelt

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Angela Merkel

Jacinda Ardern

shaq

elvis

random manifold user

abe lincoln

bruce springsteen

billy joel

Rishi Sunak

Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform

buddha

satoshi nakamoto

A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times

100

Who will do an apparent Nazi salute during Trump's second term? (add answers)

Jan 21, 4:40 PMJan 31, 4:59 AM

18068620

OptionProbability

Kanye West

Steve Bannon

Calvin Robinson

Eduardo Verástegui

Andrew Tate

Calin Georgescu

Harry Redknapp

David Walliams (Comedian)

George Simion

Tommy Robinson

Enrique Tarrio

@Anon99

Alex Jones

Another religious figure in addition to Calvin Robinson

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Julius Malema

Matteo Salvini

Elon Musk (again)

Tristan Tate

Paul Golding

Tucker Carlson

Pete Hegseth

Mel Gibson

Jacob Chansley

Nigel Farage

Markus Persson (Notch)

Donald Trump Jr.

Michael Waltz

Donald Trump

Any Democratic Senator, Governor, or former Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee

Lars von Trier

Ching Hai

Robert Fico

Nicolás Maduro

Logan Paul

Nota Baloyi

Narendra Modi

Kim Yo Jong

Glenn Greenwald

Conor McGregor

Steve Witkoff

Howard Lutnick

Cory Booker

Viktor Orban

Dave Chappelle

Erdoğan

Jordan Bardella

Pam Bondi

JD Vance

Ben Shapiro

Palmer Luckey

Larry Ellison

Caitlyn Jenner

Alex Karp

Joe Exotic

Jake Paul

Martin Shkreli

Sarah Palin

Lex Fridman

Guillaume Verdon

Piers Morgan

Aravind Srinivas

Peter Pellegrini

Alice Weidel

Marine Le Pen

Mohammed bin Salman

Candace Owens

Owen Jones

David Holz

Giuseppe Conte

Valery Gerasimov

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Aleksandar Vučić

Nayib Bukele

Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia

Joe Rogan

Joel Kaplan

Javier Milei

Emily Chang

Claire Boucher (Grimes)

Liv Boeree

Sam Bankman Fried

Sergey Lavrov

Marion Maréchal

Andrew Callaghan

Liang Wenfeng

Mario Nawfal

Kim Dotcom

Felix Kjellberg

Alexander Lukashenko

Marco Rubio

Ghislaine Maxwell

Dwarkesh Patel

Ivanka Trump

Stephen Miller

Jiankui He

George Hotz

Melania Trump

Jared Kushner

Trey Parker

Brett Kavanaugh

Robert Downey Jr.

John Cena

Peter Thiel

Usha Vance

Liz Truss

Tulsi Gabbard

Benjamin Netanyahu

Geert Wilders

Mark Zuckerberg

Matt Stone

Rudy Giuliani

Vladimir Solovyov

Ramzan Kadyrov

Amichai Chikli

Dwayne Johnson

J.K.Rowling

Vladimir Putin

Jeff Bezos

Xi Jinping

Tim Walz

Itamar Ben-Gvir

joe biden

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Michelle Obama

100

🗣️Who will run for president in the 2028 election? [ADD RESPONSES]

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

8927195

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

JD Vance

Ted Cruz

Vermin Supreme

Jill Stein

JB Pritzker

Pete Buttigieg

Andy Beshear

Nikki Haley

Corey Booker

Spencer Cox

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gretchen Whitmer

Tulsi Gabbard

Glenn Youngkin

Ron DeSantis

Vermin Supreme - NA REMAKING

Brian Schatz

Robert F Kennedy Jr

Kamala Harris

Josh Hawley

Greg Abbott

Cornel West

Tim Walz

Marianne Williamson

Adam Schiff

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Ro Khanna

Vivek Ramaswamy

Jared Polis

Katie Britt

John Ossoff

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Mitch Landrieu

Tim Scott

Amy Klobuchar

Raphael Warnock

Brian Kemp

Stephen A. Smith

Wes Moore

Scott Perry

Andy Kim

Elise Stefanik

Mark Cuban

Nicole Shanahan

Donald Trump, Jr.

Steve Bannon

Tammy Duckworth

Byron Donalds

Martin O'Malley

Chris Sununu

Marty Walsh

Erika Kirk

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Kristi Noem

Michael Bloomberg

Lauren Boebert

Matt Gaetz

Chris Christie

Elizabeth Warren

Andrew Yang

John Fetterman

Roy Cooper

Katie Porter

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

Mike Pompeo

Daniel "Keemstar" Keem

Ron Paul

Cenk Uygur

Mike Pence

Bernie Sanders

Ilhan Omar

Michelle Obama

Taylor Swift

Hillary Clinton

Chuck Norris

Joe Biden

Samuel L. Jackson

Mark Fischbach

Jimmy Carter

Mickey Mouse

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

71.69%chance

6620117

OptionVotes

YES

1591

628

Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028?

Oct 31, 4:37 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

4710794

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Donald Trump Jr.

Marco Rubio

Other

Tucker Carlson

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Donald Trump

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Spencer Cox

Erika Kirk

Mike Lee

Pete Hegseth

Stephen Miller

Glenn Youngkin

Vivek Ramaswamy

Tulsi Gabbard

Josh Hawley

Steve Bannon

Ted Cruz

Kristi Noem

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Who will Trump pardon in 2025? [Polymarket]

Jul 27, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

466975

OptionProbability

Changpeng Zhao

Rudy Giuliani

George Santos

Steve Bannon

Roger Ver

Derek Chauvin

Eric Adams

Matt Gaetz

Sam Bankman-Fried

Diddy

Bob Menendez

Julian Assange

Joe Exotic

Young Thug

Roger Stone

Edward Snowden

Ghislaine Maxwell

Elizabeth Holmes

Himself

Antoine Massey

Do Kwon

Elon Musk

Daniel Penny

Hunter Biden

Who will Trump pardon ? [Independent Megamarket]

Mar 30, 1:52 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

235834

OptionProbability

Rudy Giuliani

Juan Orlando Hernández

Henry Cuellar

Alexander Smirnov

Pete Hegseth

Andrew Tate

Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley

Ken Paxton

Peter Navarro

Donald Trump

Steve Bannon (again)

SBF

Edward Snowden

Ghislaine Maxwell

Elon Musk

100

Who will run for President of the United States in 2028?

Feb 5, 4:50 AMNov 16, 5:59 AM

684433

OptionProbability

Josh Shapiro

Gavin Newsom

JD Vance

Pete Buttigieg

Ted Cruz

Wes Moore

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

JB Pritzker

Glenn Youngkin

Nikki Haley

Tulsi Gabbard

Brian Kemp

Ron DeSantis

Cory Booker

Chris Van Hollen

Kamala Harris

Kristi Noem

Mark Cuban

Spencer Cox

Greg Abbott

Will Hurd

Tim Walz

Stephen A. Smith

Bernie Sanders

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump

Mark Milley

Mike Johnson

Steve Bannon

Marco Rubio

Vivek Ramaswamy

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Hunter Biden

Al Gore

Barack Obama

Zohran Mamdani

What guests will be on the Gavin Newsom podcast?

Feb 26, 4:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12951

OptionProbability

Charlie Kirk

Dr. Phil

Bill Maher

Kamala Harris

Ben Shapiro

Vivek Ramaswamy

Michael Savage

Tim Pool

James Carville

Mark Zuckerburg

Dan Bongino

Dennis Prager

Sundar Pichai

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Rick Scott

Steven Crowder

Steve Bannon

Elise Stefanik

Ron Desantis

Elon Musk

Joe Rogan

100

Who, if appointed to the cabinet, will last at least two full years?

Nov 8, 10:19 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9378

OptionProbability

Doug Burgum

Ben Carson

Marco Rubio

Elon Musk

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Tulsi Gabbard

Vivek Ramaswamy

David Sacks

Steve Bannon

Ken Paxton

At least 8 hours of Bannon's Epstein tapes released in 2025?

Jul 19, 7:39 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

16.49%chance

8201

OptionVotes

YES

225

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