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Bannon News

Bannon Presses GOP to Sell Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Amid Weak Polls

US Elections

US Legislation

US Domestic Policy

Bannon Presses GOP to Sell Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Amid Weak Polls

1 year ago

Steve Bannon Criticizes Article 5 Security Guarantee for Ukraine, Warns of Troop Commitments and Rising $54 Billion Bailout Amid Europe’s Defense Refusal

War

US Legislation

US Foreign Policy

Steve Bannon Criticizes Article 5 Security Guarantee for Ukraine, Warns of Troop Commitments and Rising $54 Billion Bailout Amid Europe’s Defense Refusal

1 year ago

Commerce Chief Lutnick Plans Overhaul of H-1B and Green-Card Rules

US Domestic Policy

Politics

Commerce Chief Lutnick Plans Overhaul of H-1B and Green-Card Rules

1 year ago

US Legislation

US Foreign Policy

US Domestic Policy

Steve Bannon Calls for Accountability on Abbey Gate Anniversary, Criticizes H-1B Visa Program and CCP Influence

1 year ago

Europe

War

US Foreign Policy

Bannon Criticizes Europe’s $58B Ukraine Aid Failure, Cites 625,000 Casualties; Parsi and Netanyahu Warn U.S. on Iran War

1 year ago

Ukraine

War

US Legislation

Bannon Rips GOP Leaders Over Reported $58 Billion Ukraine Aid Push

1 year ago

US Elections

War

US Foreign Policy

VP J.D. Vance Ends U.S. Funding for Ukraine War as Bannon Urges America First Policy, No Troops in Europe

1 year ago

2028 US Presidential Election winner?

Jan 10, 6:40 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

10101296080

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Marco Rubio

Gavin Newsom

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Tucker Carlson

Pete Buttigieg

Ron DeSantis

Mark Kelly

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

No 2028 Election

Thomas Massie

Steve Bannon

Nikki Haley

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Rogan

Kanye West

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Scott

Dean Phillips

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Tulsi Gabbard

Jimmy Donaldson(MrBeast)

Greg Abbott

Tim Walz

Mike Gallagher

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Elissa Slotkin

Tammy Baldwin

Jacky Rosen

Shawn Fain

Abigail Spanberger

Mike Johnson

Elon Musk

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Nov 6, 5:48 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

16391018462

OptionProbability

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Fair elections in 2028

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

US national bitcoin reserve created

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

trump gets hospitalized

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump and Obama shake hands

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Dow rises above 65,000

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

War is declared against another nation

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Joe Biden dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

10% fewer government agencies

NATO invokes Article 5

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump gets covid (again)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New national park created

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

The department of education gets desolved

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump gets shot

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

south park is canceled/discontinued

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

A national ban on gender-affirming care

"covfefe" posted again

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat

100

Who will do an apparent Nazi salute during Trump's second term? (add answers)

Jan 21, 4:40 PMJan 31, 4:59 AM

19472614

OptionProbability

Kanye West

Alex Jones

Steve Bannon

Calvin Robinson

Eduardo Verástegui

Andrew Tate

Calin Georgescu

Harry Redknapp

David Walliams (Comedian)

Tristan Tate

Stephen Miller

Tommy Robinson

Vladimir Solovyov

Pete Hegseth

Donald Trump

Enrique Tarrio

Another religious figure in addition to Calvin Robinson

@Anon99

Julius Malema

Matteo Salvini

Elon Musk (again)

Paul Golding

Marjorie Taylor Greene

George Simion

Markus Persson (Notch)

Tucker Carlson

Jacob Chansley

Logan Paul

Narendra Modi

Donald Trump Jr.

Michael Waltz

Any Democratic Senator, Governor, or former Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee

Jake Paul

Mel Gibson

Nigel Farage

Lars von Trier

Ching Hai

Robert Fico

Nicolás Maduro

Nota Baloyi

Kim Yo Jong

Glenn Greenwald

Conor McGregor

Steve Witkoff

Howard Lutnick

Cory Booker

JD Vance

Joe Rogan

Ben Shapiro

Viktor Orban

Martin Shkreli

Dave Chappelle

Erdoğan

Candace Owens

Jordan Bardella

Pam Bondi

Palmer Luckey

Larry Ellison

Caitlyn Jenner

Alex Karp

Joe Exotic

Sarah Palin

Lex Fridman

Guillaume Verdon

Piers Morgan

Aravind Srinivas

Peter Pellegrini

Alice Weidel

Marine Le Pen

Mohammed bin Salman

David Holz

Giuseppe Conte

Valery Gerasimov

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Aleksandar Vučić

Nayib Bukele

Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia

Joel Kaplan

Javier Milei

Peter Thiel

Emily Chang

Claire Boucher (Grimes)

Liv Boeree

Sam Bankman Fried

Sergey Lavrov

Marion Maréchal

Andrew Callaghan

Liang Wenfeng

Owen Jones

Mario Nawfal

Kim Dotcom

Felix Kjellberg

Alexander Lukashenko

Marco Rubio

Ghislaine Maxwell

Ivanka Trump

Jiankui He

George Hotz

Melania Trump

Jared Kushner

Trey Parker

Brett Kavanaugh

Robert Downey Jr.

John Cena

Usha Vance

Liz Truss

Tulsi Gabbard

Benjamin Netanyahu

Geert Wilders

Mark Zuckerberg

Matt Stone

Ramzan Kadyrov

Dwarkesh Patel

Amichai Chikli

Dwayne Johnson

J.K.Rowling

Vladimir Putin

Jeff Bezos

Xi Jinping

Rudy Giuliani

Tim Walz

Itamar Ben-Gvir

joe biden

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Michelle Obama

100

🗣️Who will run for president in the 2028 election? [ADD RESPONSES]

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

10129657

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

JD Vance

Andy Beshear

Vermin Supreme

JB Pritzker

Pete Buttigieg

Jill Stein

Corey Booker

Marco Rubio

Nikki Haley

Mark Kelly

Gretchen Whitmer

Ted Cruz

Vermin Supreme - NA REMAKING

Glenn Youngkin

Brian Schatz

Eric Trump

Ron DeSantis

Kamala Harris

Spencer Cox

Chris Murphy

Rand Paul

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Cornel West

Greg Abbott

Ro Khanna

Josh Hawley

John Ossoff

Marianne Williamson

Adam Schiff

Wes Moore

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Katie Britt

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vivek Ramaswamy

Amy Klobuchar

Mitch Landrieu

Robert F Kennedy Jr

Tim Scott

Raphael Warnock

Brian Kemp

Jared Polis

Andy Kim

Scott Perry

Mark Cuban

Nicole Shanahan

Donald Trump, Jr.

Steve Bannon

Byron Donalds

Kristi Noem

Stephen A. Smith

Chris Sununu

Marty Walsh

Erika Kirk

Elise Stefanik

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Donald Trump

Michael Bloomberg

Tammy Duckworth

John Fetterman

Matt Gaetz

Roy Cooper

Tim Walz

Chris Christie

Lauren Boebert

Elizabeth Warren

Martin O'Malley

Andrew Yang

Katie Porter

Tulsi Gabbard

Mike Pompeo

Daniel "Keemstar" Keem

Ron Paul

Cenk Uygur

Mike Pence

Bernie Sanders

Elon Musk

Michelle Obama

Taylor Swift

Hillary Clinton

Ilhan Omar

Samuel L. Jackson

Mark Fischbach

Jimmy Carter

Joe Biden

Chuck Norris

Mickey Mouse

Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028?

Oct 31, 4:37 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

6625758

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Other

Tucker Carlson

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Thomas Massie

Rand Paul

Nikki Haley

Brian Kemp

Tulsi Gabbard

Spencer Cox

Erika Kirk

Mike Lee

Pete Hegseth

Stephen Miller

Glenn Youngkin

Ted Cruz

Vivek Ramaswamy

Kristi Noem

Tim Scott

Josh Hawley

Steve Bannon

Who will run for President of the United States in 2028?

Feb 5, 4:50 AMNov 16, 5:59 AM

886338

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

JD Vance

JB Pritzker

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Jon Ossoff

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Ron DeSantis

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Elissa Slotkin

Glenn Youngkin

Cory Booker

Wes Moore

Brian Kemp

Chris Van Hollen

Spencer Cox

Nikki Haley

James Talarico

Ruben Gallego

Tucker Carlson

Tulsi Gabbard

Will Hurd

Stephen A. Smith

Gretchen Whitmer

Greg Abbott

Donald Trump Jr.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Kristi Noem

Mark Cuban

Bernie Sanders

Steve Bannon

Donald Trump

Tim Walz

Mark Milley

Mike Johnson

Hunter Biden

Joe Manchin

Al Gore

Barack Obama

Zohran Mamdani

Who will Trump pardon ? [Independent Megamarket]

Mar 30, 1:52 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

246094

OptionProbability

Rudy Giuliani

Juan Orlando Hernández

Henry Cuellar

Alexander Smirnov

Pete Hegseth

Andrew Tate

Donald Trump

Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley

Ken Paxton

Peter Navarro

Andy Ogles

Steve Bannon (again)

SBF

Edward Snowden

Ghislaine Maxwell

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

Elon Musk

100

What guests will be on the Gavin Newsom podcast?

Feb 26, 4:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161824

OptionProbability

Ben Shapiro

Steve Bannon

Michael Savage

Charlie Kirk

Dr. Phil

Bill Maher

Tim Pool

James Carville

Mark Zuckerburg

Dan Bongino

Dennis Prager

Sundar Pichai

Vivek Ramaswamy

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Kamala Harris

Rick Scott

Ron Desantis

Steven Crowder

Elise Stefanik

Elon Musk

Joe Rogan

100

Who, if appointed to the cabinet, will last at least two full years?

Nov 8, 10:19 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

11726

OptionProbability

Doug Burgum

Marco Rubio

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Elon Musk

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ben Carson

David Sacks

Steve Bannon

Ken Paxton

Tulsi Gabbard

Sarah Paine 2026 Podcast appearance

Jan 24, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5594

OptionProbability

The Daily

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

Conversations with Tyler

GD Politics

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

The Diary of a CEO

The Ezra Klein Show

The Bulwark Podcast

Bannon's War Room

Would you rather vote for trump or Steve Bannon?

Apr 6, 5:17 PM

would you rather vote for trump or Steve Bannon

Jun 18, 2:57 PM

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