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Prediction markets for Berger

Who will direct the next James Bond Film?

Feb 22, 6:50 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

1318804

OptionProbability

Denis Villeneuve

Gina Prince-Blythewood

Steve McQueen

Christopher Nolan

Edward Berger

Matthew Vaughn

Greta Gerwig

Emerald Fennell

Martin Campbell

Danny Boyle

Cary Fukunaga

Steven Spielberg

Chad Stahelski

Christopher McQuarrie

Chloé Zhao

Joseph Kosinski

Matt Reeves

Quentin Tarantino

Paul Greengrass

J.J. Abrams

Kathryn Bigelow

Park Chan-wook

Jordan Peele

Yann Demange

Alex Garland

Guillermo del Toro

Olivia Wilde

Robert Eggers

Lynne Ramsay

Guy Ritchie

Alfonso Cuarón

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

2910808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

914

Will SLS be used for Artemis 3 as planned?

Nov 16, 8:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.7%chance

518482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

512

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

Aug 9, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

227393

OptionProbability

Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month

Starliner-1 flies in 2026

NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025

All of the above

100

36

2

2

Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship?

Oct 29, 6:43 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

101638

OptionProbability

In-flight Raptor re-light by Q2 2025

Re-fly a Super Heavy first stage by Q2 2026

Long-duration flight test by 2027

Uncrewed lunar landing by Q3 2027

Return a Starship to terra firma by 2026

Crewed moon landing by September 2028

HLS prop-transfer demo by 2026

100

100

85

60

37

34

6

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.93%chance

131580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

1287

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

75%chance

41305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >80km?

Jul 3, 11:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71023

OptionProbability

2035 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2026 or earlier

24

20

19

18

16

7

Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)

Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

48.11%chance

10500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

963

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

Will Orion dock with Starship in LEO before 2028?

Apr 19, 4:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

13293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

923

Will Alexander Berger mention worldview diversification in his next interview with 80k?

Nov 5, 7:50 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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