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Prediction markets for Bernie Sanders
OptionProbability
27
15
10
7
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
6261
797
Will Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 4:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.29%chance
103100
OptionVotes
3567
280
Will Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before 2030?
Dec 16, 6:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.72%chance
492804
OptionVotes
1241
575
Will Bernie Sanders live to see a human walk on the moon again?
Mar 24, 6:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
48.59%chance
461944
OptionVotes
1117
837
Will Bernie Sanders withdraw his endorsement of Graham Platner (or will Platner drop out before he does so)?
Oct 22, 2:14 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM
1%chance
141111
OptionVotes
995
10
OptionProbability
100
99
83
76
76
72
72
72
50
41
41
41
34
Will a US senator, other than Bernie Sanders, identify as a socialist before 2030?
Nov 1, 3:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
64.18%chance
9228
OptionVotes
143
86
Will "On today's panel with Bernie Sanders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 30, 9:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.73%chance
7214
OptionVotes
1030
834
Who will Bernie Sanders endorse for president in 2028 dem primary?
Dec 21, 12:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
593
OptionProbability
30
24
20
17
9
Bernie Sanders V Jeremy Corbyn. Who’ll leave elected office first?
Feb 18, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
317
OptionProbability
54
46
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