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Bill Gates News

    Prediction markets for Bill Gates

    Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

    Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    12852917020

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Elon Musk

    Bill Gates

    Jeff Bezos

    Mr. Beast

    Barack Obama

    Donald Trump

    Jensen Huang

    Robert Caro

    Kamala Harris

    Satoshi Nakomoto

    Sarah Paine

    Sam Altman

    Narendra Modi

    Gwern Branwen

    JD Vance

    roon

    Geoffrey Hinton

    The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

    Terence Tao

    Ilya Sutskever

    No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

    Tim Cook

    Satya Nadella

    Justin Trudeau

    Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

    Xi Jinping

    Dalai Lama

    Buffett

    Taylor Swift

    Joe Biden

    Lebron James

    GPT-5

    Bill Clinton

    A basketball player

    Vladimir Putin

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Jesus Christ

    Rona Wang

    Jose Luis ricon

    Kettner Griswold

    James Koppel

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Nancy Pelosi

    Rishi Sunak

    Keir Starmer

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Jimmy Carter

    George W Bush

    Al Gore

    Michael Jackson

    your mom

    Mitt Romney

    one or both of his parents

    A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

    Connor Duffy

    MBS

    pope Francis

    Scott Alexander

    Leonardo DiCaprio

    RFK Jr

    Sydney Sweeney

    growing_daniel

    greg16676935420

    Deadpool

    Shaq

    Oprah Winfrey

    Yoshua Bengio

    Sundar Pichai

    Scarlett Johansson

    Paul McCartney

    [duplicate]

    Neel Nanda

    King Charles

    Kim Jong Un

    Gavin Newsom

    Royal Palace

    [cancelled option]

    Daniel Yergin

    Peter Singer

    Gabe Newell

    Neil Gorsuch

    Stephen Breyer

    Dmitry Medvedev

    JK Rowling

    Shrek

    Sam Hyde

    [invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

    Peter Thiel

    Marques Brownlee

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Ben Shindel

    Javier Milei

    Dylan Patel

    Joe Rogan

    Marc Andreessen

    Mike Tyson

    Jake Paul

    Matt Gaetz

    20

    14

    12

    9

    8

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

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    0

    0

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    0

    0

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    0

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    0

    Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

    Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    38079379

    OptionProbability

    Elon Musk

    Other

    Jensen Huang

    Larry Page

    Larry Ellison

    Sam Altman

    Jeff Bezos

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Bernard Arnault

    Masayoshi Son

    An AGI

    Satoshi Nakamoto

    Sergey Brin

    Donald Trump

    Michael Saylor

    Bill Gates

    Warren Buffett

    me

    Steve Ballmer

    Gautam Adani

    Mukesh Ambani

    Brian Armstrong

    Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

    Tim Draper

    Jack Dorsey

    Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

    @Mira

    Vladimir Putin

    Michael Dell

    Amancio Ortega

    Carlos Slim Helu

    Vitalik Buterin

    Eric Schmidt

    Dave Tepper

    Ken Griffin

    Eduardo Saverin

    Morris Chang

    37

    26

    9

    7

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

    MSF / Doctors without Borders

    Pope Leo XIV

    Yulia Navalnaya

    International Court of Justice

    Narges Mohammadi

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Netanyahu

    Greta Thunberg

    Narendra Modi

    Nathan Law

    duplicate - international Court of Justice

    UNESCO

    Philippe Lazzarini

    Joe Biden

    UNRWA

    Alexei Navalny

    Kyaw Moe Tun

    José Andrés

    World Uyghur Congress

    Maria Corina Machado

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

    Timnit Gebru

    Elon Musk

    NATO

    Donald Trump

    JD Vance

    AOC

    Antonio Guterres

    Julian Assange

    David Attenborough

    Pope Francis

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Keir Starmer

    European Union

    Ilham Tohti

    Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

    Jacinda Ardern

    Raoni Metuktire

    José Andrés

    Loujain al-Hathloul

    Ilwad Elman

    Wa Lone

    Yvonne Ridley

    Hajer Sharief

    Alexis Tsipras

    Isaias Afwerki

    Agnes Chow

    Filippo Grandi

    Yuan Longping

    Mahbouba Seraj

    Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

    Juan Carlos Jintiach

    Joshua Wong

    Ernest Moniz

    DOGE

    Kamala Harris

    Noam Chomsky

    International Fact-Checking Network

    Manifold Markets

    Justin Trudeau

    Vladimir Putin

    Aleksandr Lukashenko

    Sam Altman

    Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

    Kim Jong Un

    Abdullah Öcalan

    Daniel Sheehan

    Robert Kennedy Jr

    @Krantz

    Gustavo Petro

    The Iranian protesters

    Peacekeepers

    Jimmy Lai

    Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

    Francesca Albanese

    Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

    Haitham bin Tariq Al Said

    Any Kurdish person (or the Kurdish people

    Shehbaz Sharif

    44

    25

    6

    6

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

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    Who will be the world's first trillionaire?

    Nov 19, 5:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    7711526

    OptionProbability

    Elon Musk

    Other

    Larry Ellison

    Jeff Bezos

    Sam Altman

    Mark Zuckerburg

    Demis Hassabis

    Jensen Huang

    Bill Gates

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Bernard Arnault

    Donald Trump

    Vladimir Putin

    Austin Chen

    Dario Amodei

    Vitalik Buterin

    Peter Thiel

    Paul Graham

    Michael Saylor

    Satoshi Nakamoto

    74

    16

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv

    There are 100 million illegal immigrants in the US

    The COVID-19 Pandemic was a planned event to control populations or was intentionally created by entities like bill gates for depopulation or profit from vaccines

    The 2020 election was “rigged”: see description for further resolution criteria

    Technologies such as HAARP are a way to disable nuclear ballistic missiles in flight

    Steven Greer's claims that zero point energy technology has existed since the 50s and could produce abundant free energy for all, but has been kept hidden from the public because it would make oil obsolete.

    Biden voted for trump

    Technologies, such as HAARP, are being used with a large impact to control weather patterns or cause natural disasters for political or economic gain

    5G cellular networks were intentionally developed to create health issues or mind control.

    Donald Trump is secretly working to dismantle the cabal associated with QAnon

    16

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    7

    7

    7

    6

    Will Bill Gates be cryopreserved?

    Aug 28, 7:08 AMSep 5, 6:59 AM
    5.16%chance
    212891

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2578

    832

    Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2040?

    Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    65%chance
    13524

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1130

    635

    Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2035?

    Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    81.48%chance
    10468

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    299

    113

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    494

    120

    Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2030?

    Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    79.4%chance
    13284

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1240

    917

    Will P. D. Mangan die before Bill Gates?

    Jan 31, 4:14 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM
    50.1%chance
    8269

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    137

    116

    OptionProbability

    by dec 31 2026

    2029 or later

    By Dec 31 2028

    By Dec 31 2027

    41

    34

    14

    11

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