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Prediction markets for Bird

Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?

Mar 26, 2:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.12%chance

223159370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24750

3958

Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?

Dec 20, 6:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.46%chance

17059117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3289

304

Will there be a 1m+ bird flu outbreak in humans in the US by the end of 2025?

Nov 22, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.62%chance

12054974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15058

4976

Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?

Apr 14, 3:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.77%chance

10932287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3221

344

Will at least 100,000 Americans die of bird flu in 2025?

Dec 28, 5:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.24%chance

3913778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5463

183

Will Kurzgesagt's new Space Birds game be free to play?

Jun 10, 5:05 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.12%chance

227363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2370

422

Will the CDC announce that a "bird flu" (H5N1) epidemic exists anywhere in the United States in 2025?

Dec 6, 3:12 PMJan 1, 5:05 AM

11.07%chance

346493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2835

353

In November, will Manifold think that H5 bird flu was transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th?

Feb 13, 2:36 AMNov 9, 5:59 AM

5.55%chance

104546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3983

100

Bird flu added to the WHO's list of emergencies this year?

Jan 3, 7:00 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

38.98%chance

173087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

799

Will the dodo bird be brought back from extinction before the end of 2030?

Mar 3, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.74%chance

271373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

487

By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

Jan 5, 11:07 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

77.34%chance

251240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1354

852

Will any NFL team run the "Bird Gauntlet" before 2030?

Nov 2, 5:56 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

13.65%chance

26927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

924

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