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Cárdenas Rivera News

    Prediction markets for Cárdenas Rivera

    Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030

    Mar 5, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    2234152

    OptionProbability

    Anne Carson

    Can Xue

    Cristina Rivera Garza

    Gerald Murnane

    Enrique Vila-Matas

    Haruki Murakami

    Amitav Ghosh

    César Aira

    Alexis Wright

    Salman Rushdie

    Mircea Cărtărescu

    Elena Ferrante

    Thomas Pynchon

    Jamaica Kincaid

    Michel Houellebecq

    Margaret Atwood

    Christian Kracht

    Raul Zurita

    Péter Nádas

    Stephen King

    100

    41

    33

    32

    27

    26

    25

    25

    25

    24

    23

    23

    21

    21

    19

    18

    17

    17

    15

    11

    Lanterne Rouge Cycling Podcast 2026 Hot Takes Megamarket

    Nov 15, 6:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    2012285

    OptionProbability

    [Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories

    [Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC

    [Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours

    [Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC

    [Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia

    [Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026

    [FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026

    [Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem

    [UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)

    [Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France

    [Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race

    [Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026

    [Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026

    [Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages

    [Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points

    [Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points

    [Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument

    [Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France

    [Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC

    [Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season

    [Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic

    [Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia

    [Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races

    [Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours

    [Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)

    [Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit

    [Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel

    [Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours

    [UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments

    [UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race

    [NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race

    [NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

    [Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey

    [Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC

    [Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage

    [Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix

    [Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    7

    6

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

    Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    273011

    OptionProbability

    Other

    [None - Position will cease to exist]

    Mira Murati

    Elon Musk

    Greg Brockman

    Sam Altman

    Bret Taylor

    Larry Summers

    Adam D'Angelo

    Andrej Karpathy

    Eric Schmidt

    Paul Graham

    Peter Thiel

    Wojciech Zaremba

    Ben Horowitz

    Jessica Livingston

    Marc Benioff

    Sheryl Sandberg

    Tim Cook

    John Doerr

    Reed Hastings

    Fei Fei Lee

    Alexander Wang

    George Hotz

    Brad Lightcap

    Bob Mcgrew

    Peter Welinder

    Jason Kwon

    Mark Chen

    Helen Toner

    Ilya Sutskever

    Emmett Shear

    Dario Amodei

    Satya Nadela

    Jeff Bezos

    Demis Hassabis

    Robin Li

    Clément Delangue

    Lila Ibrahim

    Alex Karp

    Reid Hoffman

    Raquel Urtasun

    Marc Andreessen

    Aidan Gomez

    Sandra Rivera

    Gary Marcus

    Jaime Teevan

    Sundar Pichai

    Jack Clark

    Anna Makanju

    Shane Legg

    Andrew Ng

    Pushmeet Kohli

    Yann LeCun

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Yoshua Bengio

    Hinton

    Marissa Mayer

    Spencer Rascoff

    Garry Tan

    52

    12

    4

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    At least 720 strikeouts (how many Daisuke Matsuzaka got)

    At least 800 strikeouts

    At least 934 strikeouts (how many Hyun Jin Ryu got)

    At least 1000 strikeouts

    At least 1100 strikeouts

    At least 1173 strikeouts (how many Mariano Rivera got)

    At least 1300 strikeouts

    At least 1400 strikeouts

    At least 1500 strikeouts

    At least 1600 strikeouts

    At least 1715 strikeouts (how many Chan Ho Park got)

    At least 1918 strikeouts (how many Hideo Nomo got)

    At least 2074 strikeouts (how many Fernando Valenzuela got)

    At least 2245 strikeouts (how many Tommy John got)

    At least 2535 strikeouts (how many Bartolo Colon got)

    At least 2803 strikeouts (how many Cy Young got)

    100

    90

    79

    66

    57

    51

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

    41

    30

    13

    1

    1

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