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Cárdenas Rivera News

    Prediction markets for Cárdenas Rivera

    Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030

    Mar 5, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    1621562

    OptionProbability

    Can Xue

    Cristina Rivera Garza

    Haruki Murakami

    Mircea Cărtărescu

    Enrique Vila-Matas

    Gerald Murnane

    Amitav Ghosh

    Anne Carson

    César Aira

    Alexis Wright

    Salman Rushdie

    Elena Ferrante

    Jamaica Kincaid

    Michel Houellebecq

    Margaret Atwood

    Thomas Pynchon

    Christian Kracht

    Raul Zurita

    Péter Nádas

    Stephen King

    39

    34

    31

    30

    29

    27

    26

    26

    26

    26

    25

    25

    22

    21

    20

    20

    18

    18

    16

    13

    Lanterne Rouge Cycling Podcast 2026 Hot Takes Megamarket

    Nov 15, 6:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    1910806

    OptionProbability

    [Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories

    [Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC

    [Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours

    [Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC

    [Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

    [Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem

    [UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories

    [Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France

    [Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race

    [Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026

    [FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026

    [Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia

    [Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026

    [Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel

    [Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026

    [Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories

    [Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument

    [Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC

    [Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points

    [Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races

    [Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit

    [UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race

    [Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points

    [Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season

    [Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories

    [NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race

    [Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages

    [Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France

    [Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC

    [Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic

    [Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia

    [Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)

    [Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours

    [UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments

    [NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

    [Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey

    [Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage

    [Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix

    [Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    98

    76

    30

    12

    10

    9

    6

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

    Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    273011

    OptionProbability

    Other

    [None - Position will cease to exist]

    Mira Murati

    Elon Musk

    Greg Brockman

    Sam Altman

    Bret Taylor

    Larry Summers

    Adam D'Angelo

    Andrej Karpathy

    Eric Schmidt

    Paul Graham

    Peter Thiel

    Wojciech Zaremba

    Ben Horowitz

    Jessica Livingston

    Marc Benioff

    Sheryl Sandberg

    Tim Cook

    John Doerr

    Reed Hastings

    Fei Fei Lee

    Alexander Wang

    George Hotz

    Brad Lightcap

    Bob Mcgrew

    Peter Welinder

    Jason Kwon

    Mark Chen

    Helen Toner

    Ilya Sutskever

    Emmett Shear

    Dario Amodei

    Satya Nadela

    Jeff Bezos

    Demis Hassabis

    Robin Li

    Clément Delangue

    Lila Ibrahim

    Alex Karp

    Reid Hoffman

    Raquel Urtasun

    Marc Andreessen

    Aidan Gomez

    Sandra Rivera

    Gary Marcus

    Jaime Teevan

    Sundar Pichai

    Jack Clark

    Anna Makanju

    Shane Legg

    Andrew Ng

    Pushmeet Kohli

    Yann LeCun

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Yoshua Bengio

    Hinton

    Marissa Mayer

    Spencer Rascoff

    Garry Tan

    52

    12

    4

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    At least 720 strikeouts (how many Daisuke Matsuzaka got)

    At least 800 strikeouts

    At least 934 strikeouts (how many Hyun Jin Ryu got)

    At least 1000 strikeouts

    At least 1100 strikeouts

    At least 1173 strikeouts (how many Mariano Rivera got)

    At least 1300 strikeouts

    At least 1400 strikeouts

    At least 1500 strikeouts

    At least 1600 strikeouts

    At least 1715 strikeouts (how many Chan Ho Park got)

    At least 1918 strikeouts (how many Hideo Nomo got)

    At least 2074 strikeouts (how many Fernando Valenzuela got)

    At least 2245 strikeouts (how many Tommy John got)

    At least 2535 strikeouts (how many Bartolo Colon got)

    At least 2803 strikeouts (how many Cy Young got)

    100

    90

    79

    66

    57

    51

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

    41

    30

    13

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

    Other

    89

    11

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