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2035

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The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

Mike Macdonald - Seattle Seahawks

Kyle Shanahan - San Francisco 49ers

Mike Vrabel - New England Patriots

Zac Taylor - Cincinnati Bengals

Dan Campbell - Detroit Lions

Sean Payton - Denver Broncos

Matt LaFleur - Green Bay Packers

Sean McDermott - Buffalo Bills

Dan Quinn - Washington Commanders

John Harbaugh - New York Giants

Ben Johnson - Chicago Bears

Jim Harbaugh - Los Angeles Chargers

Kevin O'Connell - Minnesota Vikings

Joe Brady - Buffalo Bills

Jesse Minter - Baltimore Ravens

Mike McCarthy - Pittsburgh Steelers

Liam Coen - Jacksonville Jaguars

Kellen Moore - New Orleans Saints

Brian Schottenheimer - Dallas Cowboys

DeMeco Ryans - Houston Texans

Shane Steichen - Indianapolis Colts

Todd Bowles - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kevin Stefanski - Atlanta Falcons

Jeff Hafley - Miami Dolphins

Robert Saleh - Tennessee Titans

Klint Kubiak - Las Vegas Raiders

Mike LaFleur - Arizona Cardinals

Dave Canales - Carolina Panthers

Kevin Stefanski - Cleveland Browns

Brian Daboll - New York Giants

Todd Monken - Cleveland Browns

Aaron Glenn - New York Jets - Duplicate

Mike McDaniel - Miami Dolphins

Aaron Glenn - New York Jets

Jonathan Gannon - Arizona Cardinals

Atlanta Falcons - Raheem Morris

Pete Carroll - Las Vegas Raiders

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

Jess Wilson

Ben Carroll

Other

Warren Pickering

Jacinta Allan

YES

CBS case, over 60 Minutes Harris interview

Trump defamation suit against NYT (filed September 2025)

Des Moines Register case, over Ann Selzer poll

There will never be a consensus

Everett’s original

Decoherence & decision-theoretic Many-Worlds (Wallace)

Envariance / Quantum Darwinism (Zurek)

Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Vaidman)

Decoherent Histories (Gell-Mann–Hartle)

Many-Minds (Albert–Loewer)

Paulding

Coweta

Carroll