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Prediction markets for Claude
Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?
Feb 25, 8:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
9.71%chance
15365871
OptionVotes
3050
328
OptionVotes
2843
352
OptionVotes
1940
515
Will Claude Opus 4.5 still be considered frontier by end of year?
Nov 26, 8:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.18%chance
353637
OptionVotes
3030
330
OptionVotes
1872
534
OptionVotes
1250
800
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.67%chance
5765
OptionVotes
1747
572
Within 1 year, will I think Claude Skills are a bigger deal than MCP?
Oct 18, 3:36 AMOct 18, 6:59 AM
58.11%chance
5400
OptionVotes
1178
849
Will I think Claude Max is worth $200 by mid December 2025?
Dec 3, 8:52 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM
57.5%chance
4285
OptionVotes
1163
860
Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.31%chance
6275
OptionVotes
1046
760
Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.6%chance
365
OptionVotes
1029
995
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
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