Cleverly News

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

Keir Starmer

Nigel Farage

Other

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Boris Johnson

Richard Tice

Rupert Lowe

Ed Davey

Robert Jenrick

Tom Tugendhat

James Cleverly

Other

Boris Johnson

Mel Stride

Priti Patel

Chris Phelps

Jeremy Hunt

Suella Braverman

Grant Schapps

Andy Street

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Angela Rayner

Nigel Farage

Wes Streeting

Kemi Badenoch

Rachel Reeves

Oliver Dowden

Yvette Cooper

Bridget Phillipson

Jonathan Reynolds

John Healey

Jeremy Hunt

Tom Tugendhat

Johnny Mercer

Jess Phillips

Daisy Cooper

Mark Harper

Victoria Prentis

Shabana Mahmood

Louise Haigh

Dan Jarvis

Angela Eagle

Suella Braverman

Mel Stride

David Lammy

Pat McFadden

Peter Kyle

Ian Murray

Lisa Nandy

Emily Thornberry

Priti Patel

James Cleverly

Liz Kendall

Steve Reed

Hilary Benn

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Ian Lavery

Michael Gove

Penny Mordaunt

Gillian Keegan

Ed Milliband

Jo Stevens

Clive Lewis

Barry Gardiner

David Miliband

John McDonnell

Stephen Kinnock

Ed Davey

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Thangam Debbonaire

Diane Abbott

Kwasi Kwarteng

Jude Bellingham

JK Rowling

David Tennant

Dominic Cummings

William, Prince of Wales

Piers Morgan

Nigel Farage

Angela Rayner

Robert Jenrick

Other

Kemi Badenoch

James Cleverly

Wes Streeting

Yvette Cooper

Andy Burnham

Jeremy Corbyn

Rachel Reeves

David Lammy

Ed Davey

Tom Tugendhat

Priti Patel

Mel Stride

Jeremy Hunt

Rishi Sunak

Suella Braverman

Nigel Farage

Angela Rayner

Other

Robert Jenrick

Ed Davey

Kemi Badenoch

James Cleverly

Yvette Cooper

Wes Streeting

Keir Starmer

Rachel Reeves

Jeremy Hunt

Rishi Sunak

Ben Wallace

Rosena Allin-Khan

Penny Mordaunt

Suella Braverman

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Lisa Nandy

Someone Else

Emily Thornberry

Jess Phillips

Clive Lewis

Diane Abbott

John McDonnell

David Lammy

Dan Jarvis

Barry Gardiner

Ian Lavery

Michael Gove

Sajid Javid

Brandon Lewis

Grant Shapps

Tom Tugendhat

Boris Johnson

Theresa May

Andrea Leadsom

Stephen Crabb

Liam Fox

Nadhim Zahawi

Priti Patel

Angela Eagle

Hilary Benn

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Stephen Kinnock

Michelle Donelan

Johnny Mercer

Niko Omilana

Robert Jenrick

Other

James Cleverly

Tom Tugendhat

Boris Johnson

Rishi Sunak

Other

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

James Cleverly

Nigel Farage

Suella Braverman

Penny Mordaunt

David Cameron

Priti Patel

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Other

James Cleverly

Robert Jenrick

Nigel Farage

Boris Johnson

Tom Tugendhat

Kemi Badenoch

James Cleverly

Priti Patel

Claire Coutinho

Chris Philip

NO