OptionProbability
Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee
The GOP nominee outruns Ted Cruz's 2018 margin
John Cornyn resigns from the Senate early
Ken Paxton resigns as Texas AG early
Ken Paxton is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to an executive branch position
Ken Paxton becomes a federal judge
Ken Paxton is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to head a major department (i.e. DOJ, FBI)
The GOP nominee outruns Donald Trump's 2020 margin
The SAVE Act is passed as part of a deal to get Paxton to withdraw
One of the two GOP runoff candidates drops out
John Cornyn is the GOP nominee
100
13
5
4
2
1
0
Donald Trump
Rick Scott
JD Vance
Mike Johnson
Ted Cruz
Dave McCormick
Josh Hawley
John Thune
John Cornyn
Rand Paul
Lindsey Graham
61
50
Gina Hinojosa
Other
Brandon Gill
Greg Abbott
Pete Chambers
Ken Paxton
Wesley Hunt
49
20
OptionVotes
YES
NO
150
67
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