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Prediction markets for Cowen
Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?
May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4%chance
6411797
OptionVotes
4902
204
OptionVotes
2935
341
OptionProbability
72
70
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
42
41
41
39
32
31
31
31
31
25
25
20
20
20
14
8
8
5
OptionProbability
100
87
71
71
71
71
65
63
61
59
57
52
52
52
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
43
40
39
31
27
20
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM
17.33%chance
181998
OptionVotes
2184
458
When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?
Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM
61519
OptionProbability
34
25
22
15
1
1
1
1
Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028
Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM
97.57%chance
20950
OptionVotes
909
49
Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.11%chance
15650
OptionVotes
1403
844
Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM
8.28%chance
10635
OptionVotes
731
160
Will Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?
Sep 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.21%chance
1101
OptionVotes
199
50
Does the shortest possible universal program contain Tyler Cowen in it?
Sep 18, 7:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65%chance
221
OptionVotes
109
76
Will Tyler Cowen vote REPUBLICAN in the 2028 presidential election?
Nov 11, 1:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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