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Top stories

CNN’s Tiffany Cross Labels Stephen Miller ‘White Supremacist’ During Panel

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Cross

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3823852

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not before 2030

2026

2025 or earlier

40

28

18

7

6

1

Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?

May 5, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.31%chance

275937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2023

129

Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, before Jan 20 2029?

Mar 6, 9:37 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

10.2%chance

92131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2967

337

Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?

Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.46%chance

101932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

601

Will India's GDP cross $7 trillion by 2030?

Jul 31, 1:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62.58%chance

361851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

964

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.61%chance

201082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

799

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

919

Will 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President?

Jul 9, 5:12 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

63.97%chance

8573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1333

750

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32.53%chance

17553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

979

Will Volcanic Island cross $1000 before 2030?

Dec 18, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.58%chance

3436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

711

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.1%chance

15338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

956

Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030?

Jul 8, 6:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.57%chance

5191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1189

841

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