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Cuomo News

Cuomo Leads Mamdani 52%-41% Head-to-Head; Mamdani Tops Multi-Candidate Race with Adams Surging, Cuomo Pledges Dropout

US Elections

Prediction Markets

New York

Cuomo Leads Mamdani 52%-41% Head-to-Head; Mamdani Tops Multi-Candidate Race with Adams Surging, Cuomo Pledges Dropout

1 year ago

NYC Hopeful Mamdani Draws Fire for Plan to Drop Misdemeanor Policing

US Elections

US Domestic Policy

New York

NYC Hopeful Mamdani Draws Fire for Plan to Drop Misdemeanor Policing

1 year ago

Jeffries Withholds Endorsement as Polls Test Mamdani’s 42% Lead in NYC Mayor Race

US Elections

New York

Politics

Jeffries Withholds Endorsement as Polls Test Mamdani’s 42% Lead in NYC Mayor Race

1 year ago

US Elections

New York

Politics

33-Year-Old NYC Mayoral Candidate Zohran Mamdani Requires Spotter to Bench Press 135 Pounds, Faces Criticism Amid Poll Lead

1 year ago

Who will be elected president in 2028?

Apr 24, 1:23 AMNov 7, 12:00 AM

21281923118

OptionProbability

Jon Ossoff

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Other

Marco Rubio

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Ron DeSantis

Tucker Carlson

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Donald Trump

Raphael Warnock

Mark Kelly

Ro Khanna

Chris Van Hollen

Joe Rogan

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

Ted Cruz

Amy Klobuchar

Kanye West

Hunter Biden

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Gretchen Whitmer

Bernie Sanders

Greg Abbott

Nikki Haley

No 2028 Election

Stacey Abrams

Glenn Youngkin

Elizabeth Warren

Cory Booker

Roy Cooper

Tim Scott

Mitch Landrieu

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Ruben Gallego

Katie Porter

Joe Biden

Ration L. Ussy

Wes Moore

Mark Cuban

Tim Walz

RFK Jr.

Tetraspace

Lina Khan

Shawn Fain

Donald Trump Jr

Elon Musk

Ritchie Torres

Taylor Swift

Barack Obama

Chris Murphy

Stephen A. Smith

Mickey Mouse

Ivanka Trump

Barron Trump

Laura Loomer

Abigail Spanberger

Sam Altman

John Fetterman

Tulsi Gabbard

Al Gore

Kathy Hochul

[deleted]

Josh Hawley

Rahm Emmanuel

Ezra Klein

Tim Kaine

invalid

Brian Kemp

David McCormick

Andrew Yang

Anna Paulina Luna

Amaryllis Fox

AI Overlord

Duplicate - Will Resolve No

Mike Johnson

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Jamie Dimon

Abrego Garcia

Andrew Cuomo

Invalid

invalid

Deval Patrick

Jasmine Crockett

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Obama

Sheldon Whitehouse

Robert Prevost

Harambe

Josh Stein

Jeff Jackson

Rand Paul

Vivek Ramaswamy

Elissa Slotkin

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

May 1, 10:23 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

513282201

OptionProbability

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Other

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Mark Kelly

James Talarico

JB Pritzker

Gretchen Whitmer

Michelle Obama

Rahm Emanuel

There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

Wes Moore

Chris Van Hollen

Ro Khanna

Andrew Yang

Bernie Sanders

John Stewart

Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione

Colin Allred

Raphael Warnock

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Tim Walz

Connor Duffy

[Invalid - Duplicate]

Yishan Wong

Adolf Hitler

Mark Cuban

Andrew Cuomo

John Fetterman

Stephen A. Smith

Ritchie Torres

Elissa Slotkin

Jill Biden

Invalid

Jasmine Crockett

Cory Booker

Invalid

Ruben Gallego

Hakeem Jeffries

Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)

Zohran Mamdani

Jacob Frey

Noam Chomsky

Mikie Sherrill

Taylor Swift

Liz Cheney

Kirsten Gillibrand

Ezra Klein

Invalid

Josh Green

Chris Murphy

Jamie Dimon

George Washington

Paris Hilton

Donald Trump

George Clooney

Bob brooks

Abdul El-Sayed

Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Sep 18, 10:26 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

15075549

OptionProbability

John Ossoff

Other

J.D. Vance

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Ron Desantis

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Donald Trump

Tucker Carlson

Pete Buttigieg

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Raphael Warnock

J.B. Pritzker

Donald Trump Jr

Cory Booker

Ruben Gallego

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Nikki Haley

Greg Abbott

Tim Scott

Amy Klobuchar

Jared Polis

Joe Biden

Michelle Obama

Hillary Clinton

Glenn Youngkin

Robert Kennedy Jr.

Doug Burgum

Mike Gallagher

Tim Walz

Roy Cooper

Shawn Fain

Tulsi Gabbard

John Fetterman

Andrew Cuomo

Stephen A. Smith

Ritchie Torres

Mark Cuban

Tim Kaine

Andrew Yang

Mike Johnson

🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]

May 22, 7:43 PMNov 13, 11:36 PM

36246722

OptionProbability

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Increase water by 50 g

it needs more salt

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Use Iodized salt

Do a second rise

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Add garlic

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Strawberry jelly filling

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Use the same dough bake it as focaccia. Flat with EVOO added during shaped rise and baste with EVOO instead of spraying water during baking.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

put ketchup and cheese on it

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Add slurs to it

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Make the bread taste good

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use lemonade instead of water.

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Taste the bread

put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off

Buy chemical bread improvers

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

add 'gunpowder' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idli_podi)

Make banana bread

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Add cheese inside it and also sausage

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

Eat it slowly and focus on the taste

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag

Complete 5 items from your to-do list while the bread is rising

Make the bread great again

Mix only flour and water. Wait 30–60 minutes. Then mix in yeast and salt.

Add caffeine to the bread

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

Follow a recipe online

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour

Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number

Substitute 10% cricket flour

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Bake for 15 more minutes

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Replace salt with sugar

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of gravy that includes chicken stock

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Combine all answers that are unresolved at the time you try this one

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Add banana

Add poppy seeds

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Brush on an egg wash

100

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Oct 10, 3:00 PMJun 17, 6:59 AM

16446037

OptionProbability

Pete Buttigieg

Gavin Newsom

Ro Khanna

Andy Beshear

Rahm Emanuel

Josh Shapiro

JB Pritzker

Cory Booker

Chris Van Hollen

Mark Kelly

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jon Ossoff

Kamala Harris

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Raphael Warnock

Don Lemon

Chris Murphy

Marianne Williamson

Andrew Yang

Hunter Biden

James Talarico

Gretchen Whitmer

Abdul El-Sayed

Rashida Tlaib

Dean Phillips

Josh Stein

Jamie Raskin

Jared Polis

Gina Raimondo

Stephen A. Smith

Tammy Duckworth

Graham Platner

John Fetterman

Stacey Abrams

Roy Cooper

Amy Klobuchar

George Clooney

Bernie Sanders

Jay Inslee

Tim Walz

Elizabeth Warren

Katie Porter

Michelle Obama

Andrew Cuomo

Angus King Jr.

Tim Kaine

Ezra Klein

Kat Abughazaleh

Joe Biden

Hillary Clinton

Chuck Norris

Zohran Mamdani

Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]

Dec 9, 1:37 PMMar 6, 4:59 AM

11319003

OptionProbability

Pete Buttigieg

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Rahm Emanuel

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Cory Booker

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Wes Moore

Jared Polis

Gretchen Whitmer

Jason Crow

Roy Cooper

Stephen A. Smith

Mark Cuban

Andrew Yang

Mark Milley

Amy Klobuchar

John Fetterman

Tim Walz

Hunter Biden

Michelle Obama

Andrew Cuomo

Jacob Frey

Bernie Sanders

Ezra Klein

Who will become the next governor of New York after Kathy Hochul?

Jul 6, 9:00 PMJul 11, 8:59 PM

164656

OptionProbability

Other

Ritchie Torres

Letitia James

Zach Iscol

Antonio Delgado

Andrew Cuomo

Mike Lawler

Lee Zeldin

Michael Ring

Who will be elected US president in 2032?

Feb 3, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

204587

OptionProbability

Other

Gavin Newsom

JD Vance

Jon Ossof

Marco Rubio

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Andrew Cuomo

Pete Buttigieg

Donald J. Trump

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Nov 20, 12:30 AMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

322748

OptionProbability

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Raphael Warnock

Cory Booker

Gavin Newsom

Mark Cuban

Jon Stewart

Gretchen Whitmer

Michelle Obama

Tim Walz

Andrew Yang

Beto O'Rourke

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Dwayne Johnson

Stephen A. Smith

Chuck Schumer

Hakeem Jeffries

Kamala Harris

Stacey Abrams

Sam Altman

John Fetterman

Andrew Cuomo

@realDonaldTrump (the Manifold user)

Donald Trump Sr.

Conditional on this candidate winning the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, will they win the general election?

Feb 13, 2:47 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

272168

OptionProbability

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Josh Shapiro

Wes Moore

Jared Polis

Jon Ossoff

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Mark Cuban

Abigail Spanberger

Gavin Newsom

Stephen A. Smith

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Andrew Cuomo

Al Gore

Who will win the 2029 New York City Democratic mayoral primary?

Jun 25, 1:40 AMJun 24, 10:59 PM

312076

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Am I the creator?

Other

Andrew Yang

Andrew Cuomo

Brad Lander

No one

Santa Claus

Second place in 2029 New York City Mayoral election?

Aug 29, 12:52 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

71527

OptionProbability

Other

Zohran Mamdani

Jessica Tisch

Curtis Sliwa

Andrew Cuomo

Sid Rosenberg

Michael Rapaport

Dave Portnoy

Ritchie Torres

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Elections
New York
Politics
Jeffries Withholds Endorsement as Polls Test Mamdani’s 42% Lead in NYC Mayor Race
Authors
12
1 year ago
Aug 28, 2025
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US Elections
Prediction Markets
New York
Cuomo Leads Mamdani 52%-41% Head-to-Head; Mamdani Tops Multi-Candidate Race with Adams Surging, Cuomo Pledges Dropout
Authors
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1 year ago
Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
US Elections
New York
Politics
33-Year-Old NYC Mayoral Candidate Zohran Mamdani Requires Spotter to Bench Press 135 Pounds, Faces Criticism Amid Poll Lead
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Aug 24, 2025
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US Elections
US Domestic Policy
New York
NYC Hopeful Mamdani Draws Fire for Plan to Drop Misdemeanor Policing
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1 year ago

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