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Prediction markets for Dario Amodei
By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM
67.19%chance
384159
OptionVotes
1552
520
Will Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?
Feb 19, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.6%chance
18973
OptionVotes
1322
756
Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
Aug 16, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.86%chance
12873
OptionVotes
342
29
Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 27, 8:35 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
4322
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
Oct 13, 7:03 PMOct 12, 3:59 AM
79%chance
10289
OptionVotes
194
52
Will the combined net worth of Greg Brockman and Dario Amodei exceed that of Elon Musk, before one of them dies?
Jul 5, 6:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.8%chance
6158
OptionVotes
114
17
Will Dario amodei be banned from entering China by eoy2028
Sep 17, 3:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.65%chance
2148
OptionVotes
121
83
Will Dario Amodei Say Anthropic Has a “Genius in a datacenter” before April 2027?
Nov 5, 10:37 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
45.35%chance
4122
OptionVotes
1098
911
Dario Amodei on Dwarkesh podcast again before June 2027
Nov 5, 10:41 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
51.08%chance
3116
OptionVotes
102
98
Will "Dario Amodei – The Adolescence of Technology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jan 27, 5:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.01%chance
295
OptionVotes
1043
773
Will curt jaimungal end up interviewing Dario Amodei at Anthropic?
Jul 27, 5:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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