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Davidson News

    Prediction markets for Davidson

    If Destiny gets unbanned on Twitch will he regularly stream on Twitch?

    Nov 22, 8:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    26.23%chance
    5913959

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1542

    668

    OptionProbability

    #144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

    #145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

    #146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

    #147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

    #148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

    #151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

    #149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

    #150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

    #152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

    #153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

    #154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

    #155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

    #156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

    #157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

    #158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

    #159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

    #160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

    #161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

    #162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

    #163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

    #166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

    #167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

    #168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

    #164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

    #165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

    #169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

    #170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

    #171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

    #172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

    #173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

    #174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

    #175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

    #176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models

    99

    99

    53

    41

    34

    31

    30

    24

    18

    18

    18

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    16

    16

    16

    16

    15

    15

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    Who will be the 48th President of the USA?

    Oct 10, 6:57 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM
    745116

    OptionProbability

    JD Vance

    Gavin Newsom

    Other

    Pete Buttigieg

    Mark Kelly

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Marco Rubio

    Josh Shapiro

    Ron de Santis

    Raphael Warnock

    Tucker Carlson

    Andy Beshear

    Spencer Cox

    Kamala Harris

    Rand Paul

    Kristi Noem

    Amy Klobuchar

    Nikki Haley

    Donald Trump Jr

    Kari Lake

    JB Pritzker

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Tammy Duckworth

    Peter Thiel

    Mitt Romney

    Donald Trump

    Cory Booker

    Hunter Biden

    Erika Kirk

    Elizabeth Warren

    Nobody, AGI kills everyone

    Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

    Mike Pompeo

    Liz Cheney

    Beto O'Rourke

    Tom Cotton

    Ben Sasse

    Kanye West

    Pete Davidson

    Joe Rogan

    Ivanka Trump

    Bernie Sanders

    Ted Cruz

    Elon Musk

    Hakeem Jeffries

    Destiny

    Jared Polis

    Stacey Abrams

    Joe Biden

    Tim Walz

    Julian Castro

    31

    17

    9

    5

    5

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Christopher Luxon

    David Seymour

    Chlöe Swarbrick

    Chris Hipkins

    Debbie Ngarewa-Packer

    Winston Peters

    Rawiri Waititi

    Marama Davidson

    James Shaw

    92

    92

    92

    83

    82

    80

    79

    57

    1

    OptionProbability

    Advanced Technologies Academy

    Ed W. Clark High School

    Davidson Academy

    Other

    49

    44

    4

    3

    Who will win the NY17 Democratic Primary?

    Oct 7, 2:48 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
    6400

    OptionProbability

    Cait Conley

    Beth Davidson

    John Cappello

    Peter Chatzky

    Effie Phillips-Staley

    Mike Sacks

    John Sullivan

    Sean Patrick Maloney

    Other

    Jessica Reinmann

    Mondaire Jones

    35

    25

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    2

    2

    Will Slate Auto ship vehicles to customers in 2026?

    Jan 10, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    23.94%chance
    5134

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    178

    56

    Will Kanye West kill himself before Pete Davidson?

    Dec 26, 11:50 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM
    56.23%chance
    8128

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    395

    323

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