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Top stories

Barcelona Registers Joan Garcia, Rashford in Last-Minute LaLiga Move

Barcelona Registers Joan Garcia, Rashford in Last-Minute LaLiga Move

Authors

7

1 year ago

Chelsea Pursues Barcelona Midfielder Fermín López Amid 90 Million Euro Asking Price, 48-Hour Decision, and Player's Resistance

Chelsea Pursues Barcelona Midfielder Fermín López Amid 90 Million Euro Asking Price, 48-Hour Decision, and Player's Resistance

Authors

4

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Deco

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Jan 21, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.52%chance

345134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

969

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

72.51%chance

301827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

963

Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?

Jan 9, 7:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

88.85%chance

51400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2363

692

Private space agency buys ISS before being decommissioned

Dec 30, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.81%chance

11838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

387

When will the Aspirational Neuroscience Memory Decoding Prize be won, if it is won by 2045?

Dec 20, 12:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5645

OptionProbability

2027

2035

2031

2033

2029

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

Later than 2045 or never

59

7

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.41%chance

14439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

Is David Wallace wrong about decoherence and branching in quantum physics?

Jul 14, 7:47 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

51.4%chance

7306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

In 2028 will China have managed to decouple political growth and increasing political control, according to economists

Oct 3, 3:32 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

26%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

88

Has decoherence solved the preferred-basis problem?

Nov 15, 6:52 PMNov 16, 6:46 PM

50%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Exit valuation of Decoda Health (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

60

14

14

11

Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 30, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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