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Top stories

Barcelona Registers Joan Garcia, Rashford in Last-Minute LaLiga Move

Barcelona Registers Joan Garcia, Rashford in Last-Minute LaLiga Move

Authors

7

4 months ago

Chelsea Pursues Barcelona Midfielder Fermín López Amid 90 Million Euro Asking Price, 48-Hour Decision, and Player's Resistance

Chelsea Pursues Barcelona Midfielder Fermín López Amid 90 Million Euro Asking Price, 48-Hour Decision, and Player's Resistance

Authors

4

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Deco

Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?

Sep 8, 8:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.98%chance

5315818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10040

100

Will Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) decouple from Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of 2025?

Jan 3, 10:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.49%chance

164741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4857

339

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

82.1%chance

271672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1557

818

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Jan 21, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.26%chance

271204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

695

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?

May 2, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.78%chance

8113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

172

Will "Decomposing Agency — capabilities without desires" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 12:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will Super Smash Bros Melee be 100% decompiled by the end of 2026?

Jul 22, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.87%chance

349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

533

475

Has decoherence solved the preferred-basis problem?

Nov 15, 6:52 PMNov 16, 6:46 PM

50%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Exit valuation of Decoda Health (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

60

14

14

11

Will Napoleon's corpse be exhumed and still be mummified/be shown to not have decomposed to his bones sometime by 2050?

Apr 18, 11:10 PMJan 1, 9:01 AM

24.97%chance

429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

132

Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 30, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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