Deco News
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Prediction markets for Deco
Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?
Jan 21, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.07%chance
323696
OptionVotes
1051
962
Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?
Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM
72.29%chance
301819
OptionVotes
1044
966
Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?
Jan 9, 7:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
88.85%chance
51400
OptionVotes
2363
692
Will Super Smash Bros Melee be 100% decompiled by the end of 2026?
Jul 22, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29%chance
8702
OptionVotes
839
217
OptionVotes
1040
971
Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?
May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
41.36%chance
11312
OptionVotes
119
84
Is David Wallace wrong about decoherence and branching in quantum physics?
Jul 14, 7:47 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM
51.4%chance
7306
OptionVotes
103
97
Will Super Smash Bros Melee be 100% decompiled by the end of 2026?
Jan 2, 6:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.43%chance
5138
OptionVotes
171
58
OptionVotes
100
100
OptionProbability
60
14
14
11
Will Zurek ever address the 'system problem' for quantum decoherence?
Nov 25, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
125
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
36
Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 30, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
224
OptionVotes
100
100