OptionVotes
NO
YES
1431
907
106
95
OptionProbability
Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe
Other
Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion
Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)
33
25
8
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