Derek Thompson News

Jerusalem Demsas Raises $4 Million to Launch Liberal Journal ‘The Argument’

10 months ago

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Oct 3, 12:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.36%chance

603396

OptionVotes

YES

1431

907

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12205

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Other

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

151

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Politics
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Jerusalem Demsas Raises $4 Million to Launch Liberal Journal ‘The Argument’
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10 months ago

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By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

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