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Prediction markets for Diamond
Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?
Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM
20.43%chance
74874
OptionVotes
9864
2540
OptionVotes
712
14
OptionProbability
583
335
Will the UK return the Kohinoor Diamond to India before 2030?
Apr 30, 1:33 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
21.17%chance
18785
OptionVotes
1256
910
Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?
Aug 5, 9:17 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
49.43%chance
8600
OptionVotes
101
99
Large language model at least diamond in StarCraft 2 by 2028?
Apr 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.91%chance
10299
OptionVotes
367
27
OptionProbability
220
76
Will Nanotechnology Enable the Widespread Use of Diamond and/or Diamondoid Materials in Large Scale Structures by 2050?
Nov 19, 1:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.52%chance
590
OptionVotes
176
159
Will there be CPUs manufactured on diamond wafers by 2100?
May 27, 3:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
51.19%chance
340
OptionVotes
92
88
OptionVotes
108
92
Will there be restrictions on the sale of natural diamonds in any state by 2060?
Aug 20, 3:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
41.89%chance
417
OptionVotes
123
99
Will someone write a new diamond age book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028
Jun 11, 5:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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