Doug News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Fair elections in 2028

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Approval < 35%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A major war in Asia occurs

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Joe Biden dies

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump says a racial slur

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

The department of education gets desolved

Approval < 25%

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

New national park created

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Record level unemployment

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump and Melania divorce

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

US Invasion of any North/South American country

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

"covfefe" posted again

Cannabis is federally legalized

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

JD Vance

Other

Donald Trump Jr

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump, Sr

Ron Desantis

Glenn Youngkin

Tulsi Gabbard

None

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Josh Hawley

Greg Abbott

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Tim Scott

Tucker Carlson

Kristi Noem

Mike Johnson

Matt Gaetz

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Lauren Boebert

Tom Cotton

Elon Musk

Kari Lake

Sarah Sanders

Chris Sununu

Steven Mnuchin

Brian Kemp

Elise Stefanik

Ben Carson

Jamie Dimon

Ivanka Trump

@Mira

Nick Fuentes

Doug Burgum

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

JB Pritzker

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

None

Ron DeSantis

Andy Beshear

Nikki Haley

Michelle Obama

Tulsi Gabbard

Jamie Dimon

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Walz

John Fetterman

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden

Tim Scott

Katie Hobbs

Greg Abbott

Elizabeth Warren

Mike Johnson

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Elise Stefanik

Kristi Noem

Nicole Shanahan

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

George Clooney

Tom Hanks

Steven Pinker

Patrick Stewart

George R R Martin

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Kanye West

Doug Burgum

Jeff Jackson

Mark Kelly

Glenn Youngkin

Barack Obama

Oprah Winfrey

Hillary Clinton

Joe Rogan

Mark Carney

Other

Pierre Poilievre

Doug Ford

Mark Manson

Adam M. Curry

Jaan Tallinn

Eric Czuleger

David Hume

Liron Shapira

Andrew Bustamonte

Graham Handcock

Andrew Gallimore

Hamilton Morris

Zach De La Rocha

Audrey Tang

Scott Aaronson

Rick Rubin

KRS-1

Max Tegmark

Rob Miles

Connor Leahy

Samo Burja

George Hotz

Jan Leike

David Shapiro

Tim Kennedy

Roger Penrose

Dwarkesh Patel

Tim Ferris

Mark Laita

Chris Ramsey

Permendes

Pythagoras

David Chalmers

Roman Yampolskiy

Stuart Russell

Brian Armstrong

Doug Lenat

Geoffrey Hinton

Nathan Labenz

Julian Dorey

Yoshua Bengio

Andrew Yang

Dave Smith

David Deutsch

Ilya Sutskever

Hal Putoff

Balaji Srinivasan

Daniel Sheehan

Daniel Hillis

Tom Campbell

Curt Jaimungal

Matthew Pines

Jesse Michels

Danny Jones

Jack Kruse

Ben Goertzle

Jake Barber

Ludwig Wittgenstein

Bertrand Russell

Dan Faggela

Robert Monroe

Mike Benz

Chris Bledsoe

Julian Assange

Micheal Levin

Shawn Ryan

Jeffrey Mishlove

Steven Greer

Harald Malmgren

Matt Beall

Robert Epstein

Jeffrey Sachs

Gary Nolan

Daryl Cooper

John McAfee

Diogenes

Sean Carroll

David Grush

Daryl Davis

David Goggins

Suchir Balaji

Noam Chomsky

Zvi Mowshowitz

Jack Dorsey

Bernie Sanders

Scott Alexander

Nathan Young

Andrew Huberman

Karl Marx

Avi Loeb

Nick Bostrom

Ezra Klein

Nate Soares

Sam Altman

Dario Amodei

Joe Rogan

The user @krantz

Lex Fridman

Immanuel Kant

George Washington

Douglas Murry

Narendra Modi

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Palmer Luckey

Joeseph Farrell

Jeremy Corbell

Amjad Masad

Ammon Hillman

Sergey Brin

Steve Kwast

Rob Reiner

Bryan Johnson

Larry Ellison

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Robin Hanson

Eric Prince

Andrew Tate

Alex Karp

Robert Kennedy Jr

Aaron Rodgers

Donald Trump

Vladimir Putin

Peter Tiel

Eric Weinstein

Tucker Carlson

Alex Jones

Dick Cheney

Other

J.D. Vance

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Scott

Doug Burgum

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

Glenn Youngkin

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Eric Trump

Ivanka Trump

Other

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

NO

Other

Doug Burgum

Ivanka Trump

Marco Rubio

YES

NO

YES