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Prediction markets for Douglas
OptionProbability
31
26
26
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
24
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
3654
274
OptionProbability
61
18
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will SCOTUS strike down Alaska’s “$95,000 plane for 6 beers” forfeiture?
Aug 7, 3:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
83.85%chance
111811
OptionVotes
2278
439
Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM
75.43%chance
111774
OptionVotes
1752
571
OptionProbability
13
12
8
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
51
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
Who will be First Minister of Scotland at some point in their life?
May 8, 1:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10741
OptionProbability
52
22
18
16
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
OptionProbability
111
47
OptionProbability
28
22
13
13
13
12
Will a previous Booker winner (Marlon James or Douglas Stuart) win the 2026 Booker Prize?
Oct 20, 5:55 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM
45.25%chance
212
OptionVotes
110
91