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El Jabón News

    Prediction markets for El Jabón

    2028 Democratic nominee?

    Sep 14, 5:11 AMSep 6, 6:59 AM
    452442450

    OptionProbability

    Jon Ossoff

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Other

    Gavin Newsom

    Kamala Harris

    Pete Buttigieg

    Josh Shapiro

    Andy Beshear

    Mark Kelly

    James Talarico

    JB Pritzker

    Rahm Emanuel

    Ro Khanna

    Raphael Warnock

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Cory Booker

    No 2028 Election

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Tim Walz

    Jared Polis

    Stephen A. Smith

    Ruben Gallego

    26

    14

    13

    12

    6

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

    May 1, 10:23 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM
    513283095

    OptionProbability

    Jon Ossoff

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Gavin Newsom

    Other

    Kamala Harris

    Pete Buttigieg

    Josh Shapiro

    Andy Beshear

    Mark Kelly

    James Talarico

    JB Pritzker

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Michelle Obama

    Rahm Emanuel

    There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

    Wes Moore

    Chris Van Hollen

    Ro Khanna

    Andrew Yang

    Bernie Sanders

    John Stewart

    Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Colin Allred

    Raphael Warnock

    Jared Polis

    Tim Walz

    Amy Klobuchar

    Connor Duffy

    [Invalid - Duplicate]

    Yishan Wong

    Adolf Hitler

    Mark Cuban

    Andrew Cuomo

    John Fetterman

    Stephen A. Smith

    Ritchie Torres

    Elissa Slotkin

    Jill Biden

    Invalid

    Jasmine Crockett

    Cory Booker

    Invalid

    Ruben Gallego

    Hakeem Jeffries

    Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)

    Zohran Mamdani

    Jacob Frey

    Noam Chomsky

    Mikie Sherrill

    Taylor Swift

    Liz Cheney

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Ezra Klein

    Invalid

    Josh Green

    Chris Murphy

    Jamie Dimon

    George Washington

    Paris Hilton

    Donald Trump

    George Clooney

    Bob brooks

    27

    15

    12

    7

    6

    6

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Which US Senators and Candidates will win?

    May 15, 7:57 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM
    8550099

    OptionProbability

    Sherrod Brown - 2026 Ohio

    James Talarico - 2026 Texas

    Abdul El Sayed - 2026 Michigan

    Ashley Moody - 2026 Florida

    Roy Cooper - 2026 North Carolina

    Jon Ossoff - 2026 Georgia

    Ed Markey - 2026 Massachusetts

    Josh Turek - 2026 Iowa

    Mary Peltola - 2026 Alaska

    Mike Lee - 2028 Utah

    Bernie Sanders - 2030 Vermont

    Chuck Grassley - 2028 Iowa

    Chuck Schumer - 2028 New York

    John Fetterman - 2028 Pennsylvania

    Lindsey Graham - 2026 South Carolina

    Dan Osborn - 2026 Nebraska

    Graham Platner - 2026 Maine

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    77

    68

    28

    23

    22

    8

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Pete Buttigieg

    Gavin Newsom

    Ro Khanna

    Andy Beshear

    Rahm Emanuel

    Josh Shapiro

    JB Pritzker

    Cory Booker

    Chris Van Hollen

    Mark Kelly

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Jon Ossoff

    Kamala Harris

    Wes Moore

    Ruben Gallego

    Raphael Warnock

    Don Lemon

    Chris Murphy

    Marianne Williamson

    Andrew Yang

    Hunter Biden

    James Talarico

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Rashida Tlaib

    Dean Phillips

    Josh Stein

    Jamie Raskin

    Jared Polis

    Gina Raimondo

    Stephen A. Smith

    Tammy Duckworth

    Graham Platner

    John Fetterman

    Stacey Abrams

    Roy Cooper

    Amy Klobuchar

    George Clooney

    Bernie Sanders

    Jay Inslee

    Tim Walz

    Elizabeth Warren

    Katie Porter

    Michelle Obama

    Andrew Cuomo

    Angus King Jr.

    Tim Kaine

    Ezra Klein

    Kat Abughazaleh

    Joe Biden

    Hillary Clinton

    Chuck Norris

    Zohran Mamdani

    85

    82

    81

    81

    81

    80

    79

    68

    61

    58

    56

    55

    54

    52

    48

    43

    38

    37

    35

    31

    31

    31

    30

    28

    20

    19

    19

    19

    18

    18

    17

    16

    15

    13

    13

    12

    12

    12

    10

    10

    10

    7

    7

    5

    5

    5

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?

    Feb 20, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    478647

    OptionProbability

    Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister)

    Gustavo Petro (Colombian President)

    Pedro Sanchez (Spain Prime Minister)

    Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel Prime Minister)

    Christopher Luxon (New Zealand Prime Minister)

    Emmanuel Macron (France President)

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine Prime Minister)

    Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa Prime Minister)

    Donald Trump (United States President)

    Anthony Albanese (Australia Prime Minister)

    Javier Milei (Argentina President)

    Nayib Bukele (El Salvador President)

    Vladimir Putin (Russia President)

    100

    97

    70

    48

    39

    10

    7

    7

    6

    5

    4

    4

    2

    OptionProbability

    Tina Kotek - Oregon Governor

    Troy Jackson - Maine Senate

    Peggy Flanagan - Minnesota Senate

    Kathy Hochul - New York Governor

    Chris Pappas - New Hampshire Senate

    Angie Nixon - Florida Senate

    David Jolly - Florida Governor

    Abdul El Sayed - Michigan Senate

    Keisha Lance Bottoms - Georgia Governor

    94

    76

    15

    15

    14

    5

    3

    2

    1

    Time's Person of the Year for 2026 (mirror)

    Oct 31, 9:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    62424

    OptionProbability

    Zohran Mamdani

    Mark Carney

    James Talarico

    Pope Leo XIV

    Donald Trump

    Dario Amodei

    Abdul El-Sayed

    AI

    Elon Musk

    Marco Rubio

    Sam Altman

    Victor Glover

    Christina Koch

    Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

    ChatGPT

    Bad Bunny

    Reid Wiseman

    Jeremy Hansen

    Mojtaba Khamenei

    Xi Jinping

    Shehbaz Sharif

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Lionel Messi

    Jerome Powell

    Alysa Liu

    Péter Magyar

    Bernie Sanders

    Hakeem Jeffries

    JD Vance

    26

    16

    15

    12

    9

    9

    9

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    OptionProbability

    Finn Jeltsch

    Vitaly Janelt

    Philipp Treu

    Younes Ebnoutalib

    Said El-Mala

    Noah Atubolu

    Yannik Engelhardt

    Felix Keidel

    Anton Kade

    Tim Lemperle

    Rocco Reitz

    Karim Coulibaly

    Loris Karius

    Rafael Pinto Pedrosa

    Grischa Prömel

    Hany Mukhtar

    Mio Backhaus

    Tom Rothe

    Elias Baum

    Muhammad Damar

    Kennet Eichhorn

    Dzenan Pejcinovic

    Merlin Röhl

    Jeff Chabot

    Arijon Ibrahimovic

    Ansgar Knauff

    Bright Arrey-Mbi

    Eric Martel

    Luca Netz

    Benedict Hollerbach

    Fabian Reese

    Paul Nebel

    Wael Mohya

    Soufiane El-Faouzi

    Ragnar Ache

    Francis Onyeka

    Nelson Weiper

    Moritz Nicolas

    Nicolò Tresoldi

    Nicolas Kühn

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    59

    45

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    39

    39

    39

    39

    39

    38

    38

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    37

    35

    34

    34

    34

    33

    32

    Real Madrid 26-27 Season Prop Bets

    Aug 11, 5:41 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM
    151116

    OptionProbability

    Madrid leads LaLiga at any point

    Madrid wins 1+ El Clasico

    Jose Mourinho blames a ref or VAR for losing

    Jose Mourinho gets sent off

    Jose Mourinho falls out with a player

    Madrid wins Supercopa

    Madrid wins LaLiga

    Madrid wins Copa del Rey

    Jose Mourinho is sacked before end of season

    Madrid wins UCL

    100

    100

    85

    82

    74

    40

    25

    25

    19

    13

    OptionProbability

    Inventing a meat substitute that replaces $1B/year of meat production

    Locking up every gang tattoo haver in El Salvador to reduce homicide rate from 100 to 2.4

    Finding a gusher that produces 10 million barrels of oil over 10 years

    Having at least one child

    Inventing a way to make your factory 10% more efficient and then firing 10% of its workforce (100 workers).

    repealing occupational licensing for haircuts in city of 100,000 people

    Becoming vegan for one year

    the average act of consensual sex

    donating $10 to GiveWell

    Spending $10 million on a yacht instead of investing it in SPY

    Donating $10 to an average political campaign in the US

    the average homicide

    The average rape

    Requiring US doctors to get an unrelated bachelor's degree before starting medical school for no reason

    Delaying the covid vaccine approval by a month for no reason

    80

    73

    68

    67

    65

    64

    58

    51

    50

    46

    40

    32

    30

    30

    19

    OptionProbability

    Still president of El Salvador

    Nearly Successful Assassination Attempt

    Assassinated

    Dead

    60

    53

    20

    20

    OptionProbability

    Inicia construcción de tren eléctrico

    Se termina un teleférico público

    El ICE raciona electricidad en algún momento

    Se realiza un referéndum

    Rodrigo Chaves Robles deja de ser ministro

    92

    72

    45

    41

    34

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