Ellis News

7 months ago

Crime

San Francisco

Culture

SF Probe Finds Ex-SFPUC Chief Charged $130,000 in Trips With Subordinate

7 months ago

Larry Ellison acquires TikTok US by Mar 31?

Sep 22, 8:09 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

1.1%chance

1716920

OptionVotes

YES

9492

106

Caroline Ellison next job

Jan 23, 8:51 PMDec 31, 8:43 PM

234335

OptionProbability

No publicly known employment by EOY 2026

Fraudster

Resolves 50% if Ellison marries SBF in 2026, otherwise, resolves to coinflip

A frontier AI lab (according to @Bayesian if ambiguous)

An organization that is mostly funded by charitable donations

volunteering / unpaid-only role

Big Tech

Academia

Starts a for-profit company

Starts a non-profit company

Prison guard

Manifold employee

Announces she is going to be a professional fraudster/scammer

Who will be Italy's next Prime Minister?

Feb 22, 12:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

262534

OptionProbability

Giorgia Meloni

Other

Elly Schlein

Angelo Bonelli

Nicola Fratoianni

Silvia Salis

Michele Boldrin

Antonio Decaro

Roberto Fico

Paolo Gentiloni

Antonio Tajani

Mario Draghi

Giuseppe Conte

Vincenzo De Luca

Maurizio Landini

Matteo Salvini

Matteo Renzi

Carlo Calenda

Roberto Vannacci

Stefano Bandecchi

Luca Zaia

Stefano Bonaccini

Beppe Sala

There is between the Earth and Mars a china teapot revolving in an elliptical orbit

Apr 5, 7:45 PMApr 5, 8:59 PM

62157

OptionProbability

YES

151

Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?

Nov 1, 5:47 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

29.22%chance

151328

OptionVotes

YES

1557

642

Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?

Dec 27, 5:11 PMDec 31, 5:10 PM

7.34%chance

81142

OptionVotes

YES

404

174

Who will be Italy's next prime minister after Giorgia Meloni?

Jan 1, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3320

OptionProbability

Giuseppe Conte

Other

Elly Schlein

Antonio Tajani

Matteo Salvini

Carlo Calenda

Matteo Renzi

Angelo Bonelli

Nicola Fratoianni

Silvia Salis

Luca Zaia

Antonio Decaro

Paolo Gentiloni

Will Larry Ellison be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Mar 10, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.56%chance

4196

OptionVotes

YES

306

Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?

Nov 30, 1:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8138

OptionProbability

Neutral atoms

Silicon qubits

Superconducting qubits

Trapped ions

Discrete variable photonic

Continuous variable photonic

Will I meet Caroline Ellison in 2026?

Dec 28, 1:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

206

Will Larry Ellison die of natural causes?

Jan 19, 1:21 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

91.8%chance

3126

OptionVotes

YES

203

Will SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?

Mar 10, 1:25 AMMar 10, 12:25 AM

51.54%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

103

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Prediction markets for Ellis

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Prediction markets for Ellis

Larry Ellison acquires TikTok US by Mar 31?

Caroline Ellison next job

Who will be Italy's next Prime Minister?

There is between the Earth and Mars a china teapot revolving in an elliptical orbit

Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?

Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?

Who will be Italy's next prime minister after Giorgia Meloni?

Will Larry Ellison be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?

Will I meet Caroline Ellison in 2026?

Will Larry Ellison die of natural causes?

Will SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?

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