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Prediction markets for Erik
OptionProbability
53
22
10
10
5
5
3
3
JD Vance and Erika Kirk run for president and VP in 2028?
Nov 17, 3:41 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
11.36%chance
154323
OptionVotes
2793
358
Which of the following players will win at least 1 WSOP bracelet between 2025 and 2030 (inclusive)?
Jun 3, 1:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32925
OptionProbability
100
100
100
69
65
59
59
55
55
55
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
31
OptionProbability
61
20
17
1
1
0
0
Will Erika Kirk have a pregnancy by Elon Musk by the end of 2029?
Sep 25, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.41%chance
151235
OptionVotes
354
28
Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
64%chance
16307
OptionVotes
1060
959
Will Erik Voorhees (founder of ShapeShift exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 18, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.57%chance
6269
OptionVotes
326
104
What is true about Erika Kirk (Charlie Kirk’s widow) after the funeral ceremony.
Sep 25, 10:42 AMDec 31, 11:10 AM
12234
OptionProbability
81
55
53
48
24
Will Econ 102 with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg reach episode 100?
Feb 29, 2:19 PMMay 5, 2:29 PM
89.4%chance
2230
OptionVotes
347
45
Erika Kirk takes temporary leave as Turning Point USA CEO citing personal health?
Sep 25, 8:44 PMSep 25, 8:44 PM
43.68%chance
4163
OptionVotes
114
88
Will William Eden's kids get proper aristocratic tutoring sourced in part by Erik Hoel?
Sep 21, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20%chance
150
OptionVotes
120
45
Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet?
Sep 21, 8:41 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
57.63%chance
230
OptionVotes
94
86
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